by Matt Ösund‑Ireland

The conflict in the Middle East is of grave concern, not just for the thousands of innocent people caught up locally, but also globally, as economic conditions tighten. Beyond the human tragedies and the rising cost of living, the conflict is creating environmental and social impacts that are already visible today, with many likely to endure for a long time to come.

The purpose of this article is not to provide a comprehensive review but to highlight some of the immediate and long-term effects. It draws on my personal experience of living and working in the region, as well as lessons from the 1990-91 Iraq invasion of Kuwait.^[1]

Burning Oil: The Right to Breathe

Global media outlets captured the conflict in Kuwait with stark TV images of thick black smoke billowing from blazing oil fields. An estimated five million barrels worth of combustion-related pollutants were emitted into the air every day.^[2] Similar scenes are apparent today, for example in the recent images of the oil refinery and fuel storage tanks near Bahrain airport.

There is, however, one crucial difference, proximity. Unlike the oil fields of Kuwait, these current facilities are located close to residential communities.  Short-term health impacts could be significant and would most likely be evident in rising hospital admissions. The longer-term effects will only become evident over time and may become harder to link directly to the conflict. 

Leaks and Deposits: Loss of Marine Habitat

In 1991 some four million barrels of oil were deliberately dumped into the Persian Gulf with the intention of blocking an amphibious landing. This became one of the largest oil spills in history, heavily contaminating beaches, sediments, mangroves, and coral ecosystems. The impacts of this spill were exacerbated by the atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the burning oil wells.

There are parallels with today. Not least, the recent bombing of Kharg Island, which, if it continues, could result in a significant oil spill of a similar scale to that in 1991. Kharg Island typically exported 1.3 to 1.6 million barrels of oil per day (increasing to three million barrels per day earlier this year in anticipation of conflict), and with 18 million barrels stored on the island facility.^[3]

Conflict Waste: What Remains in the Soil

Conflict generates large volumes of waste, including hazardous waste, not only because of damage to assets and infrastructure, but also through military activity itself. A visit to the Iran-Iraq border in 2014 confirmed that extensive physical evidence from the 1980-88 war remained present in the landscape. Windblown sand now camouflages discarded ammunition, personal kit, food and spent fuel containers, packaging and vehicles as the environment begins to reclaim the land.

Similar scenes could be observed following the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, although less visible, l, was the depleted uranium from munitions used by the international coalition forces. These remnants remain highly hazardous to both humans and ecosystems, due to their persistence and potential for bioaccumulation over the longer term.

Access to Safe Water: A Human Right

There is increasing discussion about damage to power and desalination plants in the Gulf and the subsequent risks to maintaining clean water supplies for sanitation, drinking water and agriculture.^[4] Any reduction in the working capacity of power and desalination plants and wastewater treatment will place more pressure on groundwater abstraction, which, almost without exception, is already unsustainable.^[5]

Much of the drinking water supply in the region is bottled and transported by road, suggesting some resilience with increased access to external supplies. How sustainable this would be in the long term remains an ongoing question.

Seasonal changes will impact any vulnerabilities in resident populations. This is the ‘goldilocks’ time of year in the Gulf; nights are not too cold, and days are not too hot, in fact, it’s just right.  However, this will change within months as summer approaches and temperatures rise, often above 50°C.^[6] Damage to power stations or distribution infrastructure will reduce air-conditioning capacity, presenting significant challenges for households, hospitals, schools and food distribution.

Restricted access to water, cooling and food will have immediate and lasting impacts on local communities, in particular the young and the elderly.

Lessons from Kuwait: Multilateral Compensation

The invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the subsequent Allied pushback in 1991 resulted in approximately $3 billion awarded in compensation for environmental and public health damage.^[7] The pollution blanketed air, water, and soil across Kuwait and neighbouring states. This award formed part of a larger United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) settlement and was funded primarily by a percentage share of Iraq’s oil export revenues.

One further outcome of the UNCC compensation package was the establishment of the Kuwait Air Compliance Management Program, a long-term monitoring joint initiative of Kuwait Oil Company and the Kuwait Environmental Protection Agency designed to identify the extent of air pollution in Kuwait and to develop a strategy to reduce its impact.^[8] Parts of this programme continue to this day with specialists from Germany, India, Kuwait, the Philippines, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States having contributed. The programme has provided an extensive and long-term evidence base of emissions data, ambient air quality and assessment of health impacts.  Having had a long-term involvement with this program I have seen a lot of changes over the decades. Abandoned vehicles and bullet-marked buildings have been cleared, and vast tracks of oil-contaminated sand now weathered and largely remediated. However, the memories of that time remain with the people and can still surface in conversation over a cup of tea.

Who pays? Evolving Approached to Environmental Accountability

Responsibility for the environmental and social cost of the current conflict remains undecided.

Traditionally the international regime of state responsibility has focused on bilateral relations (i.e. claimant/victim vs. respondent/tort-feasor). However, the UNCC introduced a new multilateral approach, recognising shared accountability of all states involved for the safeguarding of common concerns to protect and conserve the Earth’s natural heritage, irrespective of territorial boundaries.^[9]

This legal accountability included:

• precautionary monitoring to identify and assess long-term environmental risks
• reimbursement of mutual assistance costs during environmental emergencies
• obligation on claimants to mitigate and contain further damage;
• valuation methods to ensure the remediation of lost ecological services
• follow-up tracking to ensure remediation complied with agreed environmental objectives and standards (so-called ‘green conditionality’)

Whether this multilateral approach could be adopted for this current conflict remains to be seen. However, the precedent shows that environmental damage rarely respects borders and meaningful recovery requires cooperation across communities and ecosystems, not isolated interventions.

About the author

Matt Ösund‑Ireland is a Chartered Environmentalist with more than 30 years’ experience advising governments, commercial organisations, and financial institutions on environmental strategy, compliance, impact assessment, and due diligence. His work spans air quality, climate change, carbon management and emissions reduction across aviation, transport, energy, manufacturing, and large‑scale infrastructure.

Matt has worked globally, including in regions affected by conflict, providing technical assessments and resilience planning in challenging regulatory and environmental conditions. A proven expert witness, he has testified under cross‑examination and supported major projects valued at up to £15 billion.

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References

[1] What Was the Gulf War? | Imperial War Museums

[2] Iraq Burns Kuwaiti Oil Wells | History | Research Starters | EBSCO Research

[3] Kharg Island Statistics 2026 | Key Facts – The Global Statistics

[4] How targeting of desalination plants could disrupt water supply in the Gulf | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

[5] Groundwater sustainability assessment in the Middle East using GRACE/GRACE-FO data | Hydrogeology Journal | Springer Nature Link

[6] Weather in the Gulf Cooperation Council – statistics & facts | Statista

[7] State of Kuwait | United Nations Compensation Commission

[8] KOC E-Magazine

[9] (2) Compensation for Environmental Damage from the 1991 Gulf War

 

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