HKA’s new report urges energy leaders, investors, and policymakers to rethink their decision-making criteria in light of recent changes reshaping how the energy trilemma is managed.

Titled Navigating the Energy Trilemma in a World of Urgency and Uncertainty, the report is authored by Hermano Pereira de Oliveira and Patrick Hébréard, both experienced energy sector experts with more than 20 years’ experience advising on energy markets, infrastructure and disputes.

The report explores how recent global shocks are reshaping the balance between energy security, affordability and sustainability.

For decades, energy strategies were built around finding an optimal solution between these three priorities. The report argues that this approach is no longer sufficient. A series of overlapping crises – including geopolitical instability, climate pressures and price volatility – has created an environment where decision-makers must act quickly despite growing uncertainty.

Instead of aiming for a single “perfect” outcome, an optimal solution, the authors highlight the need to focus on resilience, balance and flexibility. Organisations must design strategies, investments and systems that can withstand disruption and remain viable across a range of possible futures.

The report identifies several implications for both public and private sector actors:

• Governments must balance climate ambition, security of supply and social equity, while investing in more resilient energy systems,
• Private organisations need to adapt business models, diversify portfolios and build flexibility into contracts and financing structures,
• Across the sector, decision-makers must move from optimisation to robustness, prioritising stability over peak performance in ideal conditions.

The research also suggests that the definition of “value” in the energy sector is evolving. Rather than focusing solely on cost or profit, value increasingly depends on an organisation’s ability to adapt, absorb shocks and sustain performance over time.

As energy systems face growing pressure from climate targets, geopolitical risks and changing demand, the authors conclude that resilience will become a defining feature of successful strategies.

About the report

This report explores how the energy trilemma – balancing security, affordability, and sustainability – is being reshaped by growing urgency and uncertainty. It argues that traditional approaches based on finding an optimal balance are no longer effective, and calls for a shift towards more flexible, resilient strategies that can perform under a wide range of future scenarios.

Name	Peita Calvert
Title	Marketing and Communications Director, International
Number	+61 2 9255 9100
Email	peitacalvert@hka.com