Authored by Hermano Pereira de Oliveira and Patrick Hébréard

Summary

• The energy trilemma – balancing energy security, affordability, and sustainability – emerged from earlier dilemmas and remains a core framework, but no “perfect mix” can maximise all three objectives simultaneously, forcing ongoing trade-offs.
• Recent overlapping crises (geopolitical tensions, climate urgency, and price volatility) have intensified pressure on the energy trilemma, creating a new environment shaped by urgency and uncertainty where decisions can no longer be delayed.
• The traditional approach of optimising for a single “ideal” balance within the energy trilemma is becoming ineffective, as conditions are less predictable and more volatile than in the past.
• In response, energy strategies are shifting toward robustness and flexibility, focusing on solutions that remain resilient across multiple possible futures rather than achieving a fragile optimum.
• Both public and private actors must adapt governance, investment, and policy approaches, prioritising resilience, diversified energy systems, and adaptive planning to manage the energy trilemma and maintain long-term value in a rapidly changing energy landscape.

Rethinking the Energy Trilemma

In this report, Hermano Pereira de Oliveira and Patrick Hébréard argue that the traditional way of managing the energy trilemma – balancing security, affordability, and sustainability – is no longer fit for purpose. For decades, governments and industry have sought an optimal balance between these three goals, supported by a relatively predictable global environment.

From Predictability to Urgency and Uncertainty

That predictability has now broken down. The authors describe a new context defined by urgency and uncertainty. Urgency stems from the immediate need to address climate change, respond to renewed geopolitical risks affecting energy supply, and manage sharp increases in energy prices that are placing pressure on households and economies.

At the same time, uncertainty is rising across multiple fronts, including geopolitics, regulation, technology, markets, and social acceptance, making future conditions far more difficult to anticipate.

Moving Beyond the “Optimal Solution”

In this environment, the paper’s central argument is that energy actors can no longer rely on identifying a single optimal solution within the energy trilemma. Approaches designed for stable conditions are increasingly fragile and unable to withstand ongoing disruption.

A Shift Towards Robustness

Instead, the report calls for a shift towards robustness. This means designing strategies, investments, and systems that remain viable across a range of possible futures. A robust approach prioritises flexibility, resilience, and the ability to absorb shocks, rather than maximising performance under ideal conditions.

Practical Implications for Governments

This shift has clear implications for public policy. Governments need to:

• Move away from rigid targets and adopt more adaptive policy pathways
• Invest in system resilience, including infrastructure such as grids and storage
• Balance climate ambition with social fairness and affordability

These actions are essential to managing the energy trilemma in a volatile and constrained environment.

Practical Implications for the Private Sector

For private sector players, the report highlights the need to:

• Embed uncertainty into decision-making processes
• Diversify energy portfolios across technologies and geographies
• Rely more on risk-sharing mechanisms
• Design projects with flexible technologies, contracts, and financing structures

These approaches help ensure long-term viability despite market and regulatory uncertainty.

Redefining Value in the Energy Sector

Ultimately, Oliveira and Hébréard suggest that the definition of value in the energy sector is shifting. It is no longer just about cost efficiency or maximising returns, but about the ability to withstand disruption, adapt over time, and perform reliably across different scenarios.

Conclusion

In a world shaped by urgency and uncertainty, the report concludes that robustness is becoming the key driver of long-term success in managing the energy trilemma.

About the authors

Hermano Oliveira has 20 years of experience as a consultant in the energy sector.

Hermano has acted as an expert in various assignments and international arbitration proceedings regarding energy, utilities, and infrastructure issues in the gas, electricity and renewable energy sectors, including hydrogen, biofuels, synthetic fuels and renewable gases. He has advised clients on regulations, market and tariffs modelling, price reviews, project finance, market analysis, competition studies, business models,
organisational audits, and strategic road-maps.

Hermano specialises in energy policy and regulation. His expertise includes business strategy and project development, business transformation, large programme management, due diligence on economic and regulatory matters, and long-term contract reviews and negotiations relating to concession, supply, and
purchase agreements.

Patrick Hébréard has over 20 years of experience in the energy industry. He has been appointed as an expert regarding quantum of damages and industry standard issues on more than 20 occasions.

Patrick specialises in international arbitrations and has been cross-examined on numerous occasions, including giving concurrent evidence (hot-tubbing). He has acted as expert in many energy contract and energy infrastructure-related cases for clients across Europe, Africa, Asia, the Middle East and South America where damages claimed exceeded $1 billion.

Patrick is a damages expert. He also acts as energy industry expert providing opinion on industry practice and market standards regarding contracts and project development, notably in relation to supply contracts, transportation matters, market dynamics and infrastructure development teams to strengthen commercial governance, establish robust contracting frameworks, and embed disciplined contract management practices across major programmes.