Future of forecast: machine learning

Article

Future of forecast: machine learning

Oğuzhan Çınar

Managing Consultant

oguzhancinar@hka.com

The impact of construction

The construction industry, which impacts and interacts with more than 200 sectors, is a significant contributor to the development, prosperity and standing of countries. The scale of construction – which now accounts for 13%[1]Ribeirinho, M. J. et al. (2020) ‘The next normal in construction’, Mckinsey & Company of global GDP and 8.6%[2]Mella, A. and Savage, M. (2018) ‘Construction sector employment in low income countries’ of global employment – together with the interdependency that the sector has on so many other parts of the economy, means that there is a direct correlation between the performance of construction and other market sectors.

Such interrelationships between sectors extend not only to performance, but of course also to operational working practices that are increasingly reliant on the use of improved technology. In spite of developments over the past couple of decades, the construction industry still lags behind other sectors in terms of its adoption of technology, and continues to rely on traditional work methods. By not readily adopting new innovation, the construction industry tends to hamper its own ability to operate as efficiently as it might with other sectors.


The importance of reliable information

It is essential for construction companies – often engaged to deliver complex projects, which are inherently high risk, yet which often only yield low net profit margins – to consistently manage and monitor completion dates, anticipated final cost and risks that will impinge on delivery. To keep these elements on track relies, inevitably, on receiving and using accurate information from internal and external stakeholders. Even when working with stakeholders across the supply chain to track delivery performance through the use of assumptions, forecasts, and studies, such information inevitably remains susceptible to human error. Noting that 80%[3]MACE (2019), ‘A blueprint for modern infrastructure delivery’ of all large construction projects experience some form of delay and cost-overruns, this must at least in part, bring into question the accuracy of such monitoring and forecasting, when it is based on human input alone.

The potential of machine learning technology

So is there an alternative to the reliance on human input alone? One solution may be the use of Machine Learning Technology (“MLT”), which is one of the branches of Artificial Intelligence. In simple terms, MLT analyses historic data, learns from it and uses the trends identified to predict future events. To do so in an accurate and successful manner, MLT relies on being able to process a large volume of high quality datasets thereby enhancing the learning curve of the model. To provide some context, while the accuracy rate of an algorithm informed by 100 data sets is 50%, the accuracy of the same algorithm can reach up to 90% if 10,000 data sets are relied upon[4]Sessions, Valerie & Valtorta, Marco. (2006). ‘The Effects of Data Quality on Machine Learning Algorithms’. Where high quality large datasets could be deployed, recent studies and research[5]Pan, Y. and Zhang, L. (2021) ‘Roles of artificial intelligence in construction engineering and management: A critical review and future trends’, Automation in Construction, 122(October 2020), p. … Continue reading demonstrate that MLT could be used frequently by contractors, employers, and members of the construction supply chain to bring greater accuracy to project reporting. By extension, MLT could contribute to achieving greater profitability, productivity and efficiency of projects where used in concert with disciplines such as high calibre project management disciplines, planning, and health and safety management. Increasingly, this emerging technology is being seen as a tool that can be used as a support mechanism by companies to assist with decision making, forecasting and controlling their studies[6]Fitzsimmons, J., Hong, Y., & Brilakis, I. (2020) ‘Improving Construction Project Schedules before Execution’ Proceedings of the 37th International Symposium on … Continue reading.

We have witnessed that 80% of projects experiencing cost overruns[7]Flyvbjerg, B. (2014), ‘What You Should Now About Megaprojects, and Why’, Project Management Journal, pp. 6-19.doi:10.1002/pmj. Equally, recent studies demonstrate that MLT algorithms can, from an early stage, predict the total cost of the projects with over 90%[8]Ahiaga-Dagbui, D. D. and Smith, S. D. (2014) ‘Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining’, Construction Management and Economics, 32(7–8), pp. 682–694. doi: … Continue reading accuracy. This, therefore, suggests a strong case for using such technology to assess project costs to a greater degree. In the instance of earthworks activity, for example, variables such as soil characteristics, excavated area, depth of overburden and dumping area, are calculated and the model generates possible total cost scenarios[9]Petroutsatou, K. et al. (2012) ‘Early Cost Estimating of Road Tunnel Construction Using Neural Networks’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(6), pp. 679–687. doi: … Continue reading. This provides insight as to the most cost effective excavation method. Multiple examples of such models could be readily drawn together and processed by an MLT algorithm to verify them, and / or provide alternative costings calculations thereby generating more reliable forecasts underpinning the chosen excavation method.

Furthermore, as is widely accepted, there is a direct correlation between cost-overruns and delays in project completion. Project delay is one of the major challenges for companies and generally leads to claims, disputes, contract terminations, and puts reputations at stake. Therefore, forecasting a likely completion date accurately, predicated on likely delay events, is crucial for all parties[10]Gondia, A. et al. (2020) ‘Machine Learning Algorithms for Construction Projects Delay Risk Prediction’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(1), p. 04019085. doi: … Continue reading. Whilst this is a good aim, the uniqueness of each project makes it difficult to always foresee future delay events. To address this, MLT algorithms seek to assess the reliability of baseline programmes by forecasting the likely finish dates, and possible delay factors that should have been considered before the commencement date. The model analyses data from previous projects and considers numerous delay factors related to an employer, contractor, other stakeholders, resources, and external factors. It then presents the likely factors that might go on to cause delay to the project. The current literature illustrates that the accuracy of MLT models on planning and delay management can be up to 90% accurate[11]Yaseen, Z. M. et al. (2020) ‘Prediction of risk delay in construction projects using a hybrid artificial intelligence model’, Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(4), pp. 1–14. doi: … Continue reading.

Another application to which MLT could potentially be applied in the construction sector is that of pre-emptively identifying health and safety risks. The construction industry is recognised as one of the most dangerous sectors, with the UK Health and Safety Executive estimating the cost of work-related injuries and illness in construction industry at £1.2 billion in 2019[12]Health and Safety Executive (2020), ‘Construction statistics in Great Britain’. Studies demonstrate that artificial neural network based models informed by over 90,000 health and safety reports provide detailed predictions of incident and injury types with more than 90%[13]Baker, H., Hallowell, M. R. and Tixier, A. J. P. (2020) ‘AI-based prediction of independent construction safety outcomes from universal attributes’, Automation in Construction, 118(June), p. … Continue reading accuracy. Companies could therefore mitigate possible health and safety related events and take precautions to prevent possible loss by deploying MLT algorithms on a more regular basis.

In summary

During a construction project, numerous assumptions and forecasts are generated and based on these studies stakeholders determine their short- and long-term strategies. However, such studies are open to human error. Therefore, an accurate forecast is invaluable. In the light of recent studies and developments, it has been seen that the use of MLT has already had a positive several sectors and could be used in a similar manner in the construction industry. Its success, however, relies on the use of a large volume of high quality datasets. For it to take root in construction will therefore require not only significant investment, but also a determination by construction practitioners to record and standardise project data diligently.


About the author

Oğuzhan Çınar has 5 years of construction industry experience as a project control and cost engineer working on billion-dollar transportation, infrastructure and building projects under FIDIC and bespoke forms of contract in Qatar, Tanzania and Turkey. He is skilled in project control and commercial management disciplines, including earned value analysis, activity and source-based budgeting, planning, claim and global settlement issues, as well as stakeholder and subcontractor management areas. Combining his knowledge in civil engineering with his experience in different projects and countries enables him to analyse events accurately and to understand their root causes.

References

References
1 Ribeirinho, M. J. et al. (2020) ‘The next normal in construction’, Mckinsey & Company
2 Mella, A. and Savage, M. (2018) ‘Construction sector employment in low income countries’
3 MACE (2019), ‘A blueprint for modern infrastructure delivery’
4 Sessions, Valerie & Valtorta, Marco. (2006). ‘The Effects of Data Quality on Machine Learning Algorithms’
5 Pan, Y. and Zhang, L. (2021) ‘Roles of artificial intelligence in construction engineering and management: A critical review and future trends’, Automation in Construction, 122(October 2020), p. 103517. doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2020.103517.
6 Fitzsimmons, J., Hong, Y., & Brilakis, I. (2020) ‘Improving Construction Project Schedules before Execution’ Proceedings of the 37th International Symposium on Automation and Robotics in Construction (ISARC) https://doi.org/10.22260/isarc2020/0157
7 Flyvbjerg, B. (2014), ‘What You Should Now About Megaprojects, and Why’, Project Management Journal, pp. 6-19.doi:10.1002/pmj
8 Ahiaga-Dagbui, D. D. and Smith, S. D. (2014) ‘Dealing with construction cost overruns using data mining’, Construction Management and Economics, 32(7–8), pp. 682–694. doi: 10.1080/01446193.2014.933854.
9 Petroutsatou, K. et al. (2012) ‘Early Cost Estimating of Road Tunnel Construction Using Neural Networks’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 138(6), pp. 679–687. doi: 10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0000479
10 Gondia, A. et al. (2020) ‘Machine Learning Algorithms for Construction Projects Delay Risk Prediction’, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(1), p. 04019085. doi: 10.1061/(asce)co.1943-7862.0001736.
11 Yaseen, Z. M. et al. (2020) ‘Prediction of risk delay in construction projects using a hybrid artificial intelligence model’, Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(4), pp. 1–14. doi: 10.3390/su12041514.
12 Health and Safety Executive (2020), ‘Construction statistics in Great Britain’
13 Baker, H., Hallowell, M. R. and Tixier, A. J. P. (2020) ‘AI-based prediction of independent construction safety outcomes from universal attributes’, Automation in Construction, 118(June), p. 103146. doi: 10.1016/j.autcon.2020.103146.

James Dowling joins HKA as Global Learning, Development and Succession Director

News

James Dowling joins HKA as Global Learning, Development and Succession Director

HKA is delighted to welcome James Dowling who joins as our Global Learning, Development, and Succession Director based out of the London, Victoria Embankment office.

James’ passion for learning and people development spans over 25 years, holding senior positions across a diverse range of global commercial organisations, including Royal Bank of Scotland, PA Consulting and most recently Baker McKenzie LLP.

James is a qualified business coach, a member of the Worldwide Association of Business Coaches (WABC) and a member of the Institute of Leadership and Management.

James is a qualified practioner in several psychometric tools, including Myers Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), Step I and Step II, WAVE, 360 and Leadership development, Thomas Kilmann Conflicts instrument and Test User: Occupational Ability and Personality (BPS Level A and B) qualified.

I am delighted that James joined HKA as our Global Learning, Development, and Succession Director on Monday, 6 September, 2021.

Collaborating with our Executive Committee, Global People team, and Learning Champions, James will ensure we continue to improve our learning, development, and succession approach for all our colleagues. HKA is growing successfully, and we continue to work harder to support and invest in the development of all our colleagues as a strategic imperative and company priority.

Kate Wood, Partner and Chief People Officer

ABOUT HKA

HKA is the world’s leading consultancy of choice for multi-disciplinary expert and specialist services in risk mitigation and dispute resolution within the capital projects and infrastructure sector.  

We also have particular experience advising clients on the economic impact of commercial and investment treaty disputes and in forensic accounting matters. In addition, HKA supports companies that conduct business with the US Federal Government, providing them with consulting services on complex government contracting matters. 

HKA has in excess of 1,000 consultants, experts and advisors in more than 40 offices across 17 countries.







The role of the technical expert in assessing standard of care in construction disputes

Article

The role of the technical expert in assessing standard of care in construction disputes

Subject Matter specialists appointed as expert witnesses in dispute hearings are frequently called upon to provide opinion on whether the performance of one of the parties failed to meet the required “standard of care” as defined under the contractual agreements.

This may be a critical step towards identifying fault and determining awards but how do technical experts, most of whom are not legally trained, set about developing such opinion?

HKA’s Peter Caillard shares his thoughts.

Introduction

Numerous scholarly articles exist on standard of care, but most focus on the legal interpretation of the words and their application in various jurisdictions rather than addressing how to determine whether any particular shortcoming in performance represents a breach.

An appointed technical expert may be provided with a Statement of Claim against a professional person or company listing a series of alleged failings in performance and requested to advise whether, in their expert opinion, these fell short of the standard as defined in the agreements.

Undoubtedly, the expert secured their commission based on their relevant subject knowledge in the matter in dispute. However, no textbook or scholarly article will tell the expert how to assess whether any given mistake is a breach. The expert is on their own and must fall back on their own experiences to form their opinion.

Qualifications of the Testifying Expert
Standard of care obligations will vary between different contracts and jurisdictions, but typically use wording similar to the following:

The Service Provider shall carry out its obligations under this Agreement in conformity with the standard of care, skill and diligence normally provided by a reasonable and competent professional person in the performance of similar services at the time and place the Services are being provided.

Anyone with reasonable technical knowledge can check a design against a code or standard and demonstrate compliance or otherwise. But determination of a breach of a standard of care requires an understanding that can only emanate from personal experience of similar practice; the “been there and done that” qualification. To pass opinion, assessors must understand the complexity of the work, the conditions under which it was undertaken, and the quality of end-product that might normally be expected. They must evaluate this by considering the level of information available at the time, the contractual context, the caveats expressed, the constraints upon delivery and the reasonable expectations of the recipient. In addition, the assessment must reflect the time and place at which the services were provided – expectations will vary between jurisdictions and over time. All these elements must be framed within the terms of the agreement between the parties and then benchmarked against the assessor’s own knowledge and experiences of technical standards and industry practice.

For example, with an alleged design error: Would a competent designer have made such an error? Would a competent checker have identified and corrected it? When signing-off the outputs, did the final approver ensure that design and checking were competently executed, and that the designer and checker were appropriately qualified?

The Expert’s Assessment

The expert will no doubt diligently undertake their forensic investigation drawing upon their years of knowledge and practice. In so doing perhaps they do indeed find aspects of the design, construction, or procedures that were not fully compliant with the contract. But do all mistakes constitute a breach? How and where does the assessing expert set the bar? Does any mistake of any magnitude which has any consequence represent a breach of that standard?

The answer to these questions is not straightforward. Given that typical standard of care definitions refer to the “reasonably competent practitioner” (or similar phrasing) a shortfall in performance, by itself, is insufficient evidence of a breach. The reasonably competent practitioner, indeed, no practitioner, can consistently deliver error-free services. The bar cannot be set at perfection.

So, the expert must decide what level of mistake falls below the standard of the reasonable practitioner. To do this, through forensic investigation, they must typically ask themselves the following questions:

  1. What went wrong?
  2. Why it went wrong?
  3. Who was responsible for what happened?
  4. What were the consequences?
  5. Were corrective actions timely and appropriate?
  6. What other factors influenced this outcome?
    And from this:
  7. Could other reasonable and competent practitioners, in the same situation, have made the same error?

The “other factors” may be numerous, and experts will frequently find themselves in a situation where more than one party contributed to a failure.

Furthermore, the consequences of an error must be considered. If, say, the calculations for a bridge structure contain one small error, and the remaining 99.9% of the calculations are correct, yet that one error results in the collapse of the bridge with loss of life, together with huge disruption and financial consequences, it would hardly be reasonable to argue that there was no breach on the basis that the overwhelming proportion of the calculations were correct. A competent designer should have known that one such error could have catastrophic consequences. The appointed checker should have focused on those elements which would likely prove critical, and through their experience identified and focused on the critical over the trivial. And the approver, whose stamp permits issue of the final designs should have ensured that they had competent designers and checkers upon whom they could rely.

A bridge collapse is perhaps a rather extreme case (and hence somewhat clear cut) but frequently an expert’s advice is required on the more run-of-the mill issues – and sometimes a large number of them. In such a situation, do multiple small errors accumulate to exceed a threshold whereby the assessor determines the breach on whether this threshold has been exceeded or not?

Such a metric sounds attractive as the more mistakes practitioners make, arguably the worse their performance, and therefore the more likely that they have performed below the standard of a “reasonably competent practitioner”. But the difficulty comes when we consider the consequences. If the expert assesses that the standard of care has not been met, liability and costs may flow from the consequences of that failure. So, if the claimant lists, say, fifty issues for which they seek recompense, with how many does the assessor have to agree to conclude that the standard has not been met? All fifty? Ten? Just one?

It might sound fair to deliver an overall judgement – to ask oneself whether, taking the services provision as a whole, the service provider generally delivered a performance consistent with that of a reasonable and competent practitioner. But the practicality is that an overall view is often of little value to a court or arbitration. In many cases a claim comprises multiple issues. If the court is to identify fault and calculate an award, they need evidence on which issues represented a breach and which did not.

The Expert’s Report

In preparing evidence, it is important that the expert sets out their considered opinion why a particular matter fell short of the required standard and avoids the assumption that, as they are the expert, it is unnecessary to justify how such opinion was reached. The author’s report must explain how the opinions expressed were determined – the factors considered, the experience drawn upon, and why it is considered that the failings fell below the standard of the reasonable practitioner. Too many experts’ reports set out to demonstrate failures but overlook the “reasonable practitioner” benchmark, leaping to the conclusion that, having proved an error, they’ve proved a breach. They haven’t.

Conclusions

Courtroom judges and arbitrators have their own wealth of experience upon which to draw. They have legal opinion from both sides. What they seek from the subject matter expert is advice from the front line – the personal experience of the issues and processes forming the dispute against which comparisons of performance may be made. It is not legal opinion, and it’s not compliance with a standard, it is simply the honest judgement of one’s peers against reasonable and competent practice.

Determination of a breach of a standard of care requires an understanding that can only emanate from personal experience of similar practice.

Peter Caillard, Partner

If you require any further information, please contact Peter Caillard at petercaillard@hka.com

Restoring confidence in product safety

As first published in RIBA Journal, August 26 2021

How will the proposed reforms under the Building Safety Bill affect the certification of construction materials and how can the supply chain be better engaged, so that products are appropriately developed and deployed?

Architects must be sure that the products they specify satisfy the performance criteria, required for their projects. Traditionally, architects have relied on manufacturers’ technical literature and information published by independent certifiers such as the British Board of Agrément (BBA) and Local Authority Building Control (LABC) for assurance that the materials they select are appropriate. However, the Grenfell Inquiry exposed alarming evidence of spurious marketing in relation to the fire-safety performance of cladding and insulation products. It also uncovered widespread ‘gaming of the system’ with manufacturers making repeated attempts to get their products to pass prescribed tests.

In addition, the Hackitt Review highlighted that over the last 30 years the construction industry has become increasingly fragmented, with a widening split between those who manufacture products and those who specify them.

Many architects will have experienced the results of this fragmentation on Design and Build contracts. Meetings are held with specialist suppliers to discuss project specific requirements during the initial design stages, and production information is then developed based on the technical information provided. Products are then specified on an ‘equal or approved’ basis to maintain an open and competitive tender, allowing contractors to propose alternatives from their preferred supply chain once appointed, so as to protect their limited profit margins. Works packages previously completed for tender then have to be redesigned and re-coordinated working alongside alternative suppliers who have no prior knowledge of the scheme.

Not only does this process leave architects doing work twice, for no additional fee, it also tends to make suppliers reluctant to go the extra mile when assisting architects during the initial design stages because of the likelihood that their products will be substituted by those of their competitors. Also, the commercial pressures of value engineering can lead to last minute changes where products are ‘swapped out’ immediately prior to contract award without the implications being fully considered. This increases the potential for errors in design coordination, or worse, lapses in building safety.

Over time, these processes have eroded relationships between architects and the supply chain, and have reduced the quality of design outputs at the pre-construction phase. These problems are not unique to the UK construction industry. According to HKA’s 2020 CRUX Insight Report, the top causes of construction claims and disputes globally were scope change, incorrect or incomplete design, and poor management of sub-contractors, suppliers and their interfaces. So, how can manufacturers be encouraged to develop and market their products appropriately, and how can supply chains be better engaged by architects to restore confidence, increase efficiency and maintain design continuity?

Product Safety
The Construction Products Association (CPA) will launch a new Code for Construction Product Information (CCPI) later this year which aims to set a new benchmark for how product information is presented by manufacturers. The CPA recognises the urgent need to restore trust and confidence within the industry and the new Code will feature 11 key clauses underpinned by five core objectives to ensure product information is clear, accurate, up-to-date, accessible and unambiguous.

These developments should be welcomed by architects as they will provide greater clarity for specifiers of construction products, particularly in relation to fire-safety performance. However, with the Building Safety Bill still to complete its parliamentary journey, it remains to be seen when these much-heralded changes will begin to take effect.

There are more immediate challenges for manufacturers to face over the coming months, however, regarding the certification of construction products following the UK’s departure from the European Union. CE markings were due to cease being recognised from 1 January 2022, but due to industry concerns the government has recently extended this deadline for a further 12 months. After this, all products sold in the UK will require UKCA marking (and UKNI marking in Northern Ireland), which will require testing and certification by a UK accredited body. The British Standards Institute recently raised concerns that significant numbers of manufacturers had yet to apply for UKCA marking. This is likely to cause significant disruption to supply chains given the high proportion of products being imported from the EU.

At the RIBAJ Fire Safety in Practice webinar earlier this summer, Peter Caplehorn, Chief Executive of the CPA, noted there is currently insufficient testing capacity within the UK to meet these demands and urgent discussions are underway with the government to seek agreement on a more practical regime for the fire testing of construction products for 2022 and beyond. This will further compound the challenges presented by worldwide material shortages generally and the increased demand for cladding materials in the UK to accommodate the widespread remediation programmes being undertaken post Grenfell.

Improved Engagement
In order to fully realise the Golden Thread’s objectives, there will need to be increased collaboration between designers and supply chains. An example of this is architects and manufacturers working alongside the NBS (National Building Specification) to develop NBS Source, which is intended to provide structured, high-quality product data, to include all relevant performance criteria and certifications.

The Golden Thread is being seen as a catalyst for wider industry adoption of BIM with opportunities to link NBS Source data (and specifications aligned under NBS Chorus) to the BIM model to create a fully integrated ‘digital twin’ for the building’s lifecycle. HKA’s 2020 CRUX Insight Report has observed that whilst the global Covid-19 pandemic has had many negative impacts on the construction industry, the consequent increase in remote working and use of cloud-based technologies, has accelerated the digitalisation of construction workflows, and increased productivity. The NBS 10th Annual BIM Report 2020 confirmed that, whilst BIM adoption has grown substantially over the last decade, the lack of client demand and perceived unsuitability to certain project types continue to act as barriers.    

Embedding digital technologies through the adoption of the UK BIM Framework is one of 14 key policies summarised under the government’s Construction Playbook, which promotes delivery excellence across public sector procurement by harnessing the potential of best industry practice. The Playbook focusses on establishing key project outcomes from the outset and seeks to foster behavioural change from delivery teams by employing a more balanced approach to risk allocation.

Other policies include encouraging the use of early supply chain involvement, effective collaborative contracting and ‘modern methods of construction’ (MMC) to utilise offsite fabrication and minimise greenhouse gas emissions. By engaging teams much earlier in the design process under framework agreements, the Playbook promotes the use of early contractor involvement (ECI) with a preassembled team of consultants, sub-contractors and suppliers of construction products to develop the scheme design collaboratively while minimising wasteful design changes later in the programme.

It remains to be seen how architects will adapt to these proposed reforms and whether the drive for increased collaboration and standardisation will be seen by some as a restraint on creativity. But it is clear the profession must adapt to embrace this widespread cultural change if it is to rise to the challenge of constructing safer and more sustainable buildings whilst delivering real value for clients and communities.  

If you require any further information, please contact Paul Jolly at pauljolly@hka.com.       

The future is light, the future is green, the future requires detailed design

As first published in International Rail Journal, July 2021, Volume 61, Issue 7

Setting aside the significant downturn in passenger rail demand during the pandemic, global demand for transport is growing fast, with passenger and freight activity forecasted to more than double by 2050 in certain regions such as Europe, India and Asia. Such growth is a key indicator of both social and economic progress.

In a world becoming ever more urbanised, metros, underground and light passenger rail are continually developing their systems to address such needs. In addition, high-speed rail is serving as an alternative to short-distance air travel, whilst upgraded heavy passenger rail and freight rail are continuing to complement other transport modes to collectively provide efficient mobility. To meet this growing demand, new railroads, stations and depots, as well as the modernisation of existing infrastructure, are vital.

The use of rail in place of automotive transport and air travel should place less demand on finite energy resources, although it is acknowledged that increased demand for such transport developments will raise energy consumption and increase CO2 and greenhouse gases emissions. Addressing this issue will require continued innovation in technology such that lighter and greener rolling stock can be manufactured. These demands will inevitably increase the pressure on owners, operators, contractors, manufacturers, and a host of other suppliers within the rail sectors. The net result of such change arising as a result of new technologies being incorporated into designs, in commercial terms, is that it can regrettably lead to disputes and claims between parties.

To help raise awareness of the sources and means of addressing such disputes, HKA recently published its third annual CRUX report. CRUX draws upon an unprecedented bank of knowledge to provide valuable insights into the most common causes of disputes and commercial claims. The report looks at 1,185 engineering and construction projects from 88 countries where HKA experts have provided claims consulting and dispute resolution services on major capital projects across multiple sectors around the world.

In relation to rail and transit, rolling stock and manufacturing, and signalling and technology, a total of 82 projects were analysed with an average CAPEX of US$1.58bn. The five most common project issues were identified as:

  1. Incomplete design;
  2. Changes in scope;
  3. Late issue of design information;
  4. Incorrect design specification; and
  5. Late approval of design.

In view of the geographic coverage provided by CRUX, drawing on Expert input from our teams around the globe, we offer some insights into how such project issues are impacting and can be addressed by stakeholders in the rail industry.

A GLOBAL OVERVIEW INTO RAIL DISPUTES

Owners, operators, contractors and manufacturers alike are having to manage these challenging issues, and more, in the current landscape. This is resulting in a marked rise in contractual claims and disputes, with parties understandably looking to protect their own commercial interests.

Above all other issues, design problems drive the greatest number of claims and disputes in the rail sector. The root cause of such challenges, however, can often be traced back to failed coordination, rather than poor component design or incompetent designers, whilst pressure on time and the use of lump-sum design commissions also compound problems.

Through early contractor engagement, owners and operators can lead the concerted action needed to pre-empt these problems by:

  • actively involving the contractor or manufacturer in the preliminary design; clarifying design requirements and ensuring design maturity before contract award;
  • recognising the true capabilities of the supply chain, design teams and contract management; and
  • resolving buildability issues ahead of production.


The design failures driving more disputes stem, in large part, from unrealistic project programmes tendered on immature designs. This is of particular pertinence where innovative new technologies, aimed at providing greener solutions, are adopted, as unforeseen challenges can arise during testing, giving rise to elongation of programme timescales. Competition drives prices down as contractors and manufacturers find themselves in a “race to the bottom,” offering value-engineered solutions that they cannot fully develop due to extremely tight programmes. As owners and operators set the timescale, and the open tender price is initially decisive, contractors and manufacturers seek additional time and costs through variation orders, themselves often lodged too late.

Owner and operators also seek the lowest design price despite the need for the supply chain to explore new innovative solutions, so design consultants operating on slim margins push design detail and associated risk down the supply chain to the contractors and manufacturers. Claims are effectively embedded in contracts at the point of signature when design is incomplete. Yet design represents only a small proportion of the overall capital cost of increasingly large and complex projects.

Owners and operators, contractors and manufacturers would gain from delivering projects on time, to specification and budget, if:

  • more time were undertaken to mature design earlier, alongside more detailed early project planning;
  • greater emphasis could be placed on engaging supply chain stakeholders earlier, pre-empting latent design issues; and
  • design risk was apportioned to the party best equipped to address it.


While these changes would slow the design process, the overall project schedule should not be adversely affected if production proceeds in a more efficient and effective manner. This would also result in greater price and schedule certainty, fewer defects and less retro-fitment or rework, and a more acceptable risk profile for all parties involved.

Demand for new technologies and sustainable materials on projects is also leading to more late approvals as owner and operator design engineers and regulatory authorities struggle to check compliance. A lack of administrative capacity results in backlogs of the contractor and manufacturers requests. Late approvals could, however, be curbed if:

  • contractors and manufacturers took a more proactive approach and submitted requests earlier;
  • review points were set in contracts to specify acceptable timelines; and owner and
  • operators simplify internal processes and train more administrative and technical staff.


In addition to attending to design issues, changes in scope clearly need to be addressed, which, it is contended, could be facilitated by enhanced supply chain engagement, better communication, and employee training, as follows:

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Carl Simms is a Director with HKA based in Europe. He is a claims management specialist with over 18 years’ experience in the rail, construction, and engineering industries. He has worked on a range of projects in the rail, rolling stock and signalling sector for a variety of clients providing support with contentious issues (dispute resolution and avoidance), drawing on skills in adjudication, arbitration and litigation, as well as, preparing and defending claims.

Sidney Scott is a Partner with HKA based in the Americas. He is a professional engineer with more than 33 years of progressively responsible experience in the engineering and construction industries. His experience includes design, contract and procurement advisory services, process improvement studies and performance audits, dispute resolution, integrity monitoring, contract and specification development, research and training. 

Sid is recognized as a national expert in alternative project delivery, specifications, and procurement and contracting methods for the construction industry.  He has advised owners and on best practices for the planning, management, and administration for some of the nation’s largest transportation projects. Sid has lectured, advised public owners and industry groups, presented at national conferences, and conducted workshops, and training programs on various topics.

Baoqiang Zheng is a Partner with HKA based in Asia. He is a professional consultant with over 20 years’ experience in contract, commercial claims and claims avoidance gained on major engineering and construction schemes around the world. 

Baoqiang specialises in project planning and forensic delay analysis and has been directly involved in a variety of major international projects in the process of preparation and defence of claims, disputes and arbitration on behalf of contractors, subcontractors, clients and legal counsel, and has been appointed as delay expert in two arbitrations. 

Baoqiang has worked on many major projects around the world, including power stations (including a solar park) in Italy, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, India, Indonesia, Niger and China; oil and gas projects (including LNG) in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Australia; rail projects (including heavy rail, light rail and rapid transit) in Denmark, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and Ethiopia; defence and reclamation projects in the UK and the UAE; an airport project in Oman; roads and highways projects in the UK and Kazakhstan; a shipyard project in India; and commercial and residential buildings in the UK, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and China. 

If you require any further information, please contact Carl Simms (Europe) carlsimms@hka.com,  Sidney Scott (Americas) sidscott@hka.com or Baoqiang Zheng (Asia) baoqiangzheng@hka.com

The Principal Designer for building safety – will architects rise to the challenge?

As published in the RIBA Journal, 6 July 2021.

The Building Safety Bill was introduced to Parliament on 5 July 2021 by the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government Robert Jenrick.  Once the Bill has passed through the parliamentary stages, it is expected to become law towards the middle of next year.  The resulting Building Safety Act will bring extensive reforms to the regulatory system governing UK construction projects. The aim of the Building Safety Act is to implement the recommendations set out by Dame Judith Hackitt’s Independent Review of Building Regulations and Fire Safety following the Grenfell Tower tragedy on 14 June 2017. It will represent the most significant changes to building safety legislation for over 40 years and heralds the advent of “a new era of accountability” for those who design, construct and manage “higher-risk buildings”.[1]  

Architects are central to the proposed reforms for building designers. The Building Safety Act will give further powers to the Architects Registration Board to regulate the competency of architects by ensuring they have the necessary skills, knowledge, experience and behaviours (“SKEB”) to perform their services. The ARB Competency Guidelines for Fire and Life Safety Design were published in March and comprise 16 core competencies expected of architects.[2] The Act will also include amendments to the Architects Act 1997 to enable the ARB to impose tougher sanctions on those who fail to meet the required criteria.[3]

The RIBA has gone beyond these minimum standards set by the regulator in unveiling its own plans to implement a regime of compulsory testing for UK Chartered Members. From 2023 onwards, architects will be required to demonstrate an understanding of seven core areas including fire safety, design risk management and personal safety in order to renew their RIBA membership. The plans for implementing “Mandatory Competence in Health and Life Safety” will be subject to further consultation with members until mid June.[4]

In addition to these significant advances for raising competency standards, the Building Safety Act will impose further statutory obligations on architects, under the new dutyholder regime proposed for the lifecycle of higher-risk buildings. The Bill implements Dame Judith Hackitt’s recommendation to replicate the existing titles assigned to dutyholders under the Construction (Design and Management) Regulations 2015 (CDM 2015) to achieve what she described as “consistency and clarity across all regulatory requirements, to avoid unnecessary confusion”.[5]

The new Principal Designer role in particular, is likely to have far reaching implications for architects.      As with CDM 2015, the Principal Designer can be an organisation or an individual, and is described as being the Designer “in control of the pre-construction phase”. The PD dutyholder is described as being a suitably qualified “guiding hand” empowered to ensure the design intent in relation to building safety is understood, maintained and delivered to the point of handover through “The Golden Thread” of building information. In response to the Hackitt Review’s criticism of fragmented project teams under Design and Build procurement and the widespread use of “siloed” subcontracting, the Principal Designer role is intended to enforce a “robust ownership of accountability” for the responsibility of managing design. Under the Building a Safer Future Consultation, the MHCLG stated:

The PD HRRB should be part of the role of the lead designer, who will

often be an architect but should always be the designer with the most appropriate professional background for the project.” [6] 
[PD HRRB is the Principal Designer on a High-Risk Residential Building].

It has been suggested the Principal Designer role could mark a significant turning point for the architectural profession which has become increasingly marginalised over the last 30 years due to the rise in project management and the dominance of Design and Build procurement. The enhanced competency requirements could serve as a positive declaration of quality and professionalism when compared against other designers. The RIBA has endorsed this position and stated in a professional practice feature published in March 2021:

”An architect is the best person to fulfil the Principal Designer role.  When the Building Safety Bill becomes law, architects should rise to the challenge of increased responsibility”. [7]

But in the post-Grenfell climate, which has seen architects’ Professional Indemnity Insurance (PII) premiums increase by as much as 300% over the last three years, it is not clear whether there is much appetite within the profession for taking on the significant liabilities associated with the Principal Designer role. Many architects have also found they are now unable to obtain PII cover for issues relating to fire safety and increasingly seek to exclude this area of design liability from their appointments. Concerns were raised with the Draft Bill published in July last year over the lack of clarity provided for dutyholders with much of the detail for the new regulatory regime yet to be determined under unpublished secondary legislation. The final Bill introduced this week will now be subject to further scrutiny to determine whether these concerns have been allayed. Previous consultations have suggested the Principal Designer’s duties will include obligations to:

  • Plan, monitor and manage the pre-construction phase and coordinate all matters relating to building safety with Designers and the Client;
  • Satisfy themselves that those involved in supporting the Principal Designer are competent and have appropriate organisational capability;
  • Take reasonable steps to ensure that Designers are discharging their statutory duties and promoting the statutory objective;
  • Liaise with the Principal Contractor and share information relevant to the planning, management and monitoring of the construction phase and the co-ordination of building regulations and building safety during the construction phase; and
  • Co-sign a declaration of compliance confirming that, to the best of their knowledge, the building complies with Building Regulations and that an appropriate handover of information to the occupation dutyholder has taken place.   

There remain fundamental questions concerning how these duties could be performed in practice.

  • The dutyholder framework established under CDM 2015 has been criticised for presenting an overly simplistic and linear approach to design which does not adequately address the more complex and overlapping relationships experienced outside of traditional procurement. The HSE’s defined splits in responsibilities between the pre-construction and construction phases, and the notion that the Principal Designer role mirrors that of the Principal Contractor, were intended to capture a variety of project types including small scale domestic works. However, this rarely reflects the contractual arrangements involving multiple parties on more complex schemes.
  • When architects are engaged as lead designers, they carry additional responsibilities for coordinating information with other designers and managing the process of design. However, they are rarely able to influence the choice of designers employed by the client or contractor, determine at what stage in the design programme they are appointed and have limited contractual powers to compel their performance. They are also not required to carry detailed knowledge of design work carried out by other parties or be responsible for approving information “by others” outside of their defined scope. It is therefore difficult to see how an architect could be expected to satisfy themselves as to the competency of other designers or sign a declaration to confirm their work complies with Building Regulations without employing a host of other specialists with the relevant skills, knowledge and experience to advise them. It is also unclear whether the declaration of compliance would be confined to building safety aspects or extended to cover all parts of the Building Regulations. This suggests the role may be more suited to larger multi-disciplinary companies and preclude smaller practices where the cost of engaging sub-consultants is likely to be cost prohibitive in terms of PII.
  • The CDM Principal Designer role remains problematic under Design and Build procurement where much of the design remains to be completed by specialist subcontractors employed by the Principal Contractor during the construction phase. This has led to D&B contractors often taking on the CDM Principal Designer role themselves or engaging a health and safety specialist to perform the role on their behalf. This process of engaging peripheral health and safety consultants or “Non-Active Designers” is exactly what the HSE had intended to phase-out by introducing the Principal Designer role in CDM 2015. Their intention had been to instigate a cultural change to ensure the “Active Designers” best placed to influence and control design on construction projects were responsible for managing risk. The HSE had intended that by 2020, the lead designer (typically the architect) would automatically be taking on the CDM 2015 Principal Designer role without additional support. Although the RIBA introduced a standard form of appointment for the CDM Principal Designer under their 2018 suite of Professional Services Contracts, there remains a reluctance for widespread adoption by the profession to take on these additional liabilities which are now subject to tougher enforcement measures.[8]


Conclusion
It remains to be seen how chartered architects will respond to the RIBA’s call to rise to the challenge of the Principal Designer role for Building Safety. Two key questions will need to be addressed during the transition period following the introduction of the new Act:

Will the secondary legislation offer much needed clarity over the dutyholder’s obligations?; and,

Will there be an insurance market to support architects wishing to take on the Principal Designer role?

If you require any further information, please contact Paul Jolly at pauljolly@hka.com.


[1] The definition of “higher-risk buildings” is yet to be finalised and may be subject to the building’s size, design or purpose. The Bill suggests the scope will encompass buildings with a top storey of 18 meters or more above ground (or more than six storeys) that contain two or more dwellings or two or more rooms for “residential purposes” (including student accommodation, boarding schools, care homes, secure institutions, hotels, hospitals etc).   

[2] The ARB Safety and Sustainability Guidelines were published 25 March 2021.
www.arb.org.uk/architect-information/guidance-notes/arb-safety-sustainability-guidelines-architects/

[3] The MHCLG’s consultation on proposed amendments to the Architects Act 1997 was published 4 November 2020.  www.gov.uk/government/consultations/consultation-on-proposed-amendments-to-the-architects-act-1997/proposed-amendments-to-the-regulation-of-architects

[4] RIBA Mandatory Competences survey is available online for members until 17 June 2021.                       www.architecture.com/knowledge-and-resources/resources-landing-page/mandatory-competences

[5] Building a Safer Future – Independent Review of Building Regulations and Fire Safety: Final Report, p34, Recommendation 2.1. Building a Safer Future: Final Report (publishing.service.gov.uk)

[6] Building a Safer Future Proposals for reform of the building safety regulatory system, A consultation,
Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government, June 2019,  p153, para 6.0
BSP_consultation.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

[7] ‘Who should be responsible for the safety of a building?’ article published by the RIBA for members on 18 March 2021. www.architecture.com/knowledge-and-resources/knowledge-landing-page/who-should-be-responsible-for-the-safety-of-a-building

[8] The Sentencing Council’s Definitive Guideline for Health and Safety Offences, Corporate Manslaughter and Food Safety and Hygiene Offences was published on 1st February 2016 which has seen significant increases in fines and custodial sentences for convictions brought under CDM 2015 in order to “secure compliance”.

Nicola Caley, re-joins HKA as Principal, Europe

After 11 years based in Dubai, Nicola returns to HKA as part of the European claims team, based in its new London office at Victoria Embankment.

Nicola has more than 22 years’ experience in construction with more than 11 years focused on strategic claims management, claims determination, contractual claims preparation and defence and dispute resolution.  She has led teams on many complex and technically demanding claims assignments where she regularly advises on claims and commercial matters on major projects within challenging environments.

Nicola has a wealth of commercial, contractual and management experience gained from working on complex infrastructure, buildings and oil and gas projects throughout UK, Europe, Middle East, Africa and India.

I am delighted to welcome Nicola to HKA’s growing Claims and Advisory team in Europe. Nicola is an experienced consultant with an outstanding reputation and a successful track record of consistently delivering for clients and advising on claims and commercial matters on major projects in challenging environments. We are excited to have her on board.

Toby Hunt, Partner and Head of Europe

ABOUT HKA

HKA is the world’s leading consultancy of choice for multi-disciplinary expert and specialist services in risk mitigation and dispute resolution within the capital projects and infrastructure sector.  

We also have particular experience advising clients on the economic impact of commercial and investment treaty disputes and in forensic accounting matters. In addition, HKA supports companies that conduct business with the US Federal Government, providing them with consulting services on complex government contracting matters. 

HKA has in excess of 1,000 consultants, experts and advisors in more than 40 offices across 17 countries.  

For more information about HKA, visit www.hka.com and connect with us on LinkedIn, Twitter (@HKAGlobal) and Facebook.

Media Contact:
Suzanne Rayson
suzannerayson@hka.com

HKA Partner, Jeff Badman, relocates to European business

Following 16 years based out of Dubai, HKA is pleased to see Jeff relocate to the UK to join the European senior leadership team with responsibility for Advisory, Contracts and Claims Management services.

Jeff is a legally qualified civil engineer and member of the Chartered Institute of Arbitrators, with over 27 years’ construction and engineering experience; 12 years gained in Hong Kong and Singapore, with the balance in the Middle East working on projects in United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Oman.

He has been engaged on a variety of commercial and claims management projects in the infrastructure, building, power and utilities, and oil and gas sectors. His major projects experience includes: mass transit and light railways; power stations; foundations and geotechnical works; roads and bridges; international airports; tunnels; wastewater and water treatment schemes; gas treatment facilities; refineries; pipelines; high-rise accommodation; universities; and hotels. 

His specialist experience has been gained with major international construction and engineering companies and contract consultancies and includes: development of procurement strategies; contract drafting and reviews; contract administration; risk analyses; extension of time and cost claim/defence preparation; drafting contractual opinions; expert reports; lenders advisory services; delay analyses; dispute avoidance; third party independent reviews; and management and resolution through negotiation. 

ABOUT HKA

HKA is the world’s leading consultancy of choice for multi-disciplinary expert and specialist services in risk mitigation and dispute resolution within the capital projects and infrastructure sector.  

We also have particular experience advising clients on the economic impact of commercial and investment treaty disputes and in forensic accounting matters. In addition, HKA supports companies that conduct business with the US Federal Government, providing them with consulting services on complex government contracting matters. 

As trusted independent consultants, experts and advisors, we deliver solutions amid uncertainty, dispute and overrun, and provide the insights that make the best possible outcomes a reality for public and private sector clients worldwide. 

HKA has in excess of 1,000 consultants, experts and advisors in more than 40 offices across 17 countries.  

For more information about HKA, visit www.hka.com and connect with us on LinkedIn, Twitter (@HKAGlobal) and Facebook.

What does a Court or Tribunal want (and not want) from a party-appointed quantum expert witness: perspectives from a practising expert and arbitrator

First published in Construction Law Journal, Volume 37, Issue 4 2021.

In a recent article[1] the well-known and respected barrister Paul Darling QC gave this advice to disputants when selecting expert witnesses:

‘Get the best expert you can. He (or she) must be highly expert in relation to the issues upon which he has been asked to give an opinion.  He must fully and properly understand the role of an independent expert, study the rules about giving expert evidence and be both willing and able to comply with them…Over the years I have seen some expert witness disasters…And I have seen some absolutely brilliant ones. Thorough, fair, balanced, courteous and assured and who did not put a foot wrong.  At the risk of repetition, get the best expert you can, ensure he understands his role and complies with the rules and jealously guard his independence. He will be your best weapon.’

I could not agree more.  And that is exactly the type of expert that a judge or arbitrator wants before them.  I could stop there, but this would make for a very brief paper.  Instead, I shall explore in more detail what is required of party-appointed quantum experts in particular, after first briefly considering the legal framework underpinning the above guidance.

When I first testified in court as an expert witness in the mid-1990s the oft-recited judgment relating to the duties of an expert witness, The Ikarian Reefer[2], had only recently been handed down.  In that case, Mr. Justice Cresswell identified the following requirements[3]:

  1. Expert evidence should be and should be seen to be the independent product of the expert uninfluenced by the exigencies of litigation.
  2. An expert witness should provide independent assistance to the Court by way of objective unbiased opinion in relation to matters within his expertise and should never assume the role of advocate.
  3. An expert witness should state the facts or assumptions on which his opinion is based. He should not omit to consider material facts which detract from his concluded opinion.
  4. An expert witness should make it clear when a particular question or issue falls outside his expertise.
  5. If an expert’s opinion is not properly researched because he considers that insufficient data is available, then this must be stated with an indication that the opinion is no more than a provisional one.
  6. If after exchange of reports, an expert witness changes his view on a material matter such change of view should be communicated to the other side without delay and when appropriate to the Court.
  • Where expert evidence refers to documents these must be provided to the opposite party at the same time as the exchange of reports.

These requirements have stood the test of time and remain valid.  Recently, in ICI[4] Mr. Justice Fraser confirmed that:

“No expert should allow the necessary adherence to the principles in The Ikarian Reefer to be loosened.”

In England and Wales, the Civil Procedure Rules (“CPR”) Part 35 confirms[5] that it is the duty of experts to help the court on matters within their expertise and this duty overrides any obligation to the person from whom experts have received instructions or by whom they are paid.  It also confirms that an expert’s report must comply with the requirements set out in Practice Direction 35 (‘PD35’), which broadly reflect the principles set out in The Ikarian Reefer[6]:

  1. Expert evidence should be the independent product of the expert uninfluenced by the pressures of litigation.
  2. Experts should assist the court by providing objective, unbiased opinions on matters within their expertise, and should not assume the role of an advocate.
  3. Experts should consider all material facts, including those which might detract from their opinions.
  4. Experts should make it clear: (a) when a question or issue falls outside their expertise and (b) when they are not able to reach a definite opinion, for example because they have insufficient information.
  5. If, after producing a report, an expert’s view changes on any material matter, such change of view should be communicated to all the parties without delay, and when appropriate to the court.

Many (but not all) jurisdictions have similar standards.  Unfortunately, however, too many cases are still being reported in which experts have fallen below the required standard.  There are likely to be many more examples in arbitration awards which, for reasons of confidentiality, remain outside of the public domain.

The declarations and statements of truth required of expert reports filed in the Civil Courts of England and Wales[7] have changed over the years in an attempt to focus the minds of experts (and those instructing them) of their duties, with the aim of improving the quality of expert opinion evidence before the courts.  The most recent change to PD35—which took effect on 1 October 2020—illustrates just how seriously the issue is being taken. Experts are now required to include the following at the end of their statement of truth:

“I understand that proceedings for contempt of court may be brought against anyone who makes, or causes to be made, a false statement in a document verified by a statement of truth without an honest belief in its truth.”

Only time will tell if this latest requirement results in a lower number of experts who are subject to judicial criticism in the courts of England and Wales, although it certainly ought to focus the mind of any expert who may be tempted to depart from the required standards.

With that background I shall now explore in more detail what a court or tribunal wants from party-appointed expert witnesses and quantum experts in particular, based on relevant authorities and my experiences, under the following sub-headings:

  1. Independence and compliance with ‘the rules’.
  2. Relationship with instructing party.
  3. Parity of instructions.
  4. Access to the same information.
  5. Addressing the cases of both parties.
  6. Dealing with disputed fact or law.
  7. Joint statements and the narrowing of issues.
  8. Sampling.
  9. General attributes.

Independence and compliance with ‘the rules’

The primary requirement of a court or tribunal must be for the expert to comply with the applicable rules and, crucially, provide independent opinion evidence.  In the Civil Justice Council’s ‘Guidance for the instruction of experts in civil claims’, it states that[8]:

“A useful test of ‘independence’ is that the expert would express the same opinion if given the same instructions by another party. Experts should not take it upon themselves to promote the point of view of the party instructing them or engage in the role of advocates or mediators.”

Expert evidence which falls below the standard required is of no assistance to a judge or arbitrator, and ultimately it is of no assistance to the appointing party.

Let us look at a few extreme cases—or ‘disasters’ Mr. Darling QC bluntly puts it. 

Just two years after the judgment in The Ikarian Reefer Mr. Justice Laddie handed down his judgment in Cala Homes[9], in which he referred to an article that had previously been published by an expert instructed by one of the parties, in which he wrote:

“…the man who works the Three Card Trick is not cheating, nor does he incur any moral opprobrium, when he uses his sleight of hand to deceive the eye of the innocent rustic and to deny him the information he needs for a correct appraisal of what has gone on.  The rustic does not have to join in: but if he chooses to he is ‘fair game’.  If by an analogous ‘sleight of mind’ an expert witness is able so to present the data that they seem to suggest an interpretation favourable to the side instructing him, that is, it seems to me, within the rules of our particular game, even if it means playing down or omitting some material consideration. ‘Celatio veri’ is, as the maxim has it, ‘suggestio falsi’, and concealing what is true does indeed suggest what is false; but it is no more than a suggestion, just as the Three Card Trick was only a suggestion about the data, not an outright misrepresentation of them…”

Suffice to say the judge did not accept that expert’s interpretation of the rules, or his evidence.

If you require any further information, please contact Mark Dixon at markdixon@hka.com


[1] ‘Experts – Triumph or Disaster?’ (https://pauldarlingqc.co.uk/fourth-article-experts-triumph-or-disaster/)

[2] National Justice Compania Naviera SA v Prudential Assurance Company Ltd (‘The Ikarian Reefer’) [1993] (No.1) 2 Lloyd’s Rep 68

[3] At 81

[4] Imperial Chemical Industries Limited v Merit Merrell Technology Limited (No. 2 Quantum) [2018] EWHC 1577 (TCC) (at 237)

[5] Part 35.3

[6] Practice Direction 35 [2[ (‘Expert Evidence – General Requirements’)

[7] Practice Direction 35 [3] (‘Form and Content of an Expert’s Report’)

[8] At 11

[9] Cala Homes (South) Ltd and Ors v Alfred McAlpine Homes East Limited [1995] EWHC 7 (Ch)

Dispute avoidance in the decommissioning sector

As first published in DecomCONNECT, June Edition

Nuclear Decommissioning is huge with a spend of circa £3.2bn per annum.  By way of comparison, the UK Construction output in 2021 is projected to be £4bn according to the Office of National Statistics.  In terms of that Nuclear Decommissioning spend, it is clear that the safe and secure storing, handling, and decommissioning of our nuclear waste is critical and certainly not something I grudge some of my hard earned taxes being spent on!

However, the complex nature of decommissioning works can lead to inadvertently adversarial commercial arrangements. To address this, is there more we can do as an industry to ensure greater value for money by avoiding unnecessary disputes?

As an experienced quantum expert and commercial advisor, I believe there are many areas open to significant improvement.  Claims and disputes in the construction sector are prevalent, and the nuclear decommissioning sector, in my experience, is no different.  We waste public money on disputes where I think there are measures we can take to mitigate these risks. Primarily this means getting things right at the inception of a project as well as using fair and transparent commercial management across its lifecycle. 

Procurement

The first line of defence in resolving disputes is to get the procurement strategy and implementation right from the early stages of project delivery. I have great empathy with procurement teams that are put under pressures to ‘get projects moving’ by letting contracts.  However, this can lead to contractors being appointed at a stage where there is little more than a “concept” design with inadequate supporting detail to ensure accurate delivery. By expediting progress, but leaving specification ambiguous or incomplete, this has the potential to brew up commercial problems that will return downstream. This is particularly true where margins for error in design are so small in order to meet stringent safety standards.

Budgets and programmes (with some degree of risk) are then aligned to the “concept” to form the contract price and contract programme. The inevitable then happens: the concept is then developed via a series of iterations into a final design which is then built. Despite having to make substantial changes to the “concept” to arrive at a final design, the contractor can sometimes tend to give insufficient consideration to associated commercial changes. That is, the scope of the final design may have a very different risk profile, cost and programme to that for the “concept” design as originally agreed in the contract with the end employer. Desperate to maintain a good business relationship with the employer, yet already operating with tight profit margins, contractors may not seek entitlement to change under the contract, thereby brewing up further commercial issues.

So how can such hypothetical scenarios be addressed? 

Early Contractors Involvement (“ECI”) is being used more frequently and would, in my view, be an effective means of making sure that there are proper discussions regarding the outputs and outcomes to be delivered from projects. This would help flush out a far greater mutual understanding of design, commercial and delivery risk, and agreement as to how such risk may be mitigated. Critically, it would also help establish agreement over who is best placed to own and manage the risks. This sort of transparency, though

giving rise to a greater amount of planning time to get design agreed between all parties, would help ensure such programmes are properly thought out and reconciled with the real scope and associated risks.  In addition, up-front agreement on the contractual mechanisms that can be used to align changes in “concept” design to risk, programme, and cost need to be in place, so that uncertainty can be dealt with in an equitable way. The days of passing risk on in ‘stealth mode’ from employer to contractor and then down to subcontractors should be a thing of the past. But such improvements require a shift in ways of working to proactively deal with such problems.

Productivity and Incentivisation

In my experience, the decommissioning sector commonly sets damages clauses for delays and penalties for poor performance on schemes.  Is this the right way to do it? Does this ensure productivity?

Delay damages clauses have a tendency, from what I have witnessed, to have an adverse effect on productivity.  When there are changes, the focus ought to be on resolution and ensuring Employers, Contractors and Subcontractors are working towards ways of mitigating the risk.  However, what tends to happen is that parties dig their heels in and resort to a ‘contractual’ mindset and positions become entrenched; when there is a threat of a financial penalty, productivity is diminished, as all eyes are on the commercial position, as opposed to the delivery of works.  Additionally, where main contractors are faced with harsh delay damages clauses, they may seek to extend liability for these down to subcontractors and suppliers.  It is extremely difficult to pass these clauses fairly from a large main contractor to a subcontractor of a substantially smaller size. Whether fair or equitable, such damages are often passed downstream to businesses ill-equipped to understand and deal with what they have signed up to.  In addition, if there are also delays, the compound effect is that the main contractor may even benefit financially from recouping these delay costs from their subcontractors.  Ultimately, such actions and behaviour do nothing to serve the employer’s needs. To address this, employers, main contractors, and their supply chains would benefit from learning and applying lessons from past projects to avoid the escalation of costs, the occurrence of disputes and associated reductions in project productivity.

To assist such change and boost productivity, maybe the industry needs to focus more on incentivisation rather than penalty. For instance, contractors could reduce margins at the outset but have the opportunity to generate more profits when programme risks are resolved by the party best placed to do so.  Incentivisation to focus on innovative value engineering is also crucial to improvements in the sector. Advances could be achieved by letting those parties capable of bringing innovation

do what they are best at. By turn, contracts could reward these businesses instead of generating contracts and subcontracts containing onerous penalties encouraging the need for more unnecessary claims.

If Disputes Happen

As stakes are often high in decommissioning, disagreement over costs can be inevitable.  What happens next?  NEC3 and 4 and some other forms of contract aim for disputes to be resolved at the lowest level.  In my experience a lot of these issues can still lead to costly adjudication, which itself can be a gamble in terms of the outcome. Litigation and arbitration are yet more costly but perhaps provide a more certain and concise process, especially with higher value and complex disputes.

Could expert determination be considered as an alternative? Here, both parties agree for an expert to review the facts of the matter and provide an independent assessment of Quantum, Engineering liability, Delay and Damages or ‘QED+’ as we call it in HKA.

Please note that this article provides opinion only and does not constitute advice. We would, however, be delighted to discuss any of its content or discuss issues requiring advice in dispute avoidance, delay, engineering expertise, quantum and damages capabilities, as provided by HKA. 

If you require any further information, please contact Andrew Drennan at andrewdrennan@hka.com.

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