Embedded Finance: Growth Engine, Consumer Win, and the Next Frontier for Financial Crime Risk

Article

Embedded Finance: Growth Engine, Consumer Win, and the Next Frontier for Financial Crime Risk

Embedded finance has evolved from an early fintech innovation into a mainstream commercial strategy reshaping how consumers and businesses access financial services. Whether it is buy-now-pay-later at checkout, insurance embedded into e‑commerce, or small and medium enterprises (SMEs) accessing credit through their accounting software, financial services increasingly appear at the point of need. This has improved customer experience, opened new revenue streams for brands, and contributed to economic growth. Yet behind the opportunity sits a complex set of financial crime risks that firms can no longer afford to underestimate.

The Opportunity

Research shows that embedded finance is expected to more than double in size by 2029, with almost half of large UK corporates viewing it as a strategic growth driver[1]. Consumer expectations for instant payments, simplified credit and integrated insurance have set a new baseline for digital experiences.

The Euro Banking Association[2] describes the growth potential as ‘immense’, recognising that significant market volume is shifting away from traditional distribution channels towards embedded models. This shift has meaningful implications for the wider economy. It is particularly important for SMEs, many of whom struggle to obtain affordable working capital[3]. Embedded finance partnerships are helping to bridge this gap enabling faster access to funds and supporting small-business resilience. Consumers also benefit through smoother journeys, competitive pricing and friction-free access to financial services integrated into daily life, from retail and travel to mobility and healthcare.

But as embedded finance accelerates economic participation and consumer access, the regulatory and financial crime environment around it is becoming more complex.

The Intermediation Layer

Embedded finance operates through a multi‑layered value chain:

The customer belongs and interacts with the brand, often unaware of the regulated entity at the end of the chain.

The brand (retailer, marketplace, app) is responsible for the customer relationship, experience, journey, user interface, data capture and other touchpoints. Think of it as the first line of defence, the only difference is that it is often unregulated for financial services and money laundering obligations which can be a vulnerability.

The embedded finance platform is the technology enabler, it provides the technology, APIs, orchestration and onboarding flows. It may or may not be regulated.  

The regulated financial institution (FI) (Bank or electronic money institution (EMI)) provides the underlying financial product and carries full regulatory and anti-money laundering (AML) accountability.   

This structure means the customer belongs to the brand, but the risk belongs to the Bank.

Financial institutions (FI) are one or two steps removed from the underlying customer, onboarding and often blind to the full customer context.  They must rely on brands and platforms to perform key controls to mitigate risk. This introduces a form of “intermediated accountability” similar to correspondent banking, but with an added challenge: unlike respondent banks, brands in embedded finance are often outside the regulatory perimeter and do not necessarily have longstanding relationships with their customers.

Some describe this model as ‘renting a bank licence’. Regulators, whilst under pressure to promote the growth agenda, must consider what the consequences would be if one link in the chain fails, remembering that one FI can have multiple brands embedding its product.

Why Embedded Finance Heightens Financial Crime Risk

The 2025 National Risk Assessment (NRA) identifies fintech driven models, EMIs, and AI‑enabled onboarding as emerging high‑risk channels because innovation is outpacing supervision and governance frameworks needed to ensure safe growth. From a regulatory perspective, embedded finance amplifies risks and control gaps across several dimensions:

Speed Driven Customer JourneysRapid onboarding, embedded checkout and instant credit decisions increase the likelihood that identity anomalies or fraud indicators are missed. Criminals exploit real time approval pressure.
Fragmented & Distributed DataCustomer data passes through multiple layers: captured by the brand, processed by the platform and relied upon by the FI. Each handoff creates vulnerability if information is incomplete or inconsistent. This also creates challenges with evidencing end-to-end audit trails within timeframes acceptable to regulators.
Misaligned IncentivesBrands optimise for conversion, platforms optimise for speed and scalability whilst FIs bear the regulatory exposure. Criminals seek out misaligned pressure points and varying standards in information security and data privacy standards.
Outsourcing ChainsWhere customer due diligence (CDD) or onboarding checks are outsourced or even sub‑outsourced, ownership is often unclear, oversight becomes difficult and critical controls can fall through gaps.
EMI & Virtual Account StructuresThe NRA highlights the use of virtual IBANs and EMI‑issued accounts as known vulnerabilities due to weaker UBO verification. When these sit within embedded finance arrangements, they can facilitate layering and obfuscation of illicit funds.

Strengthening Resilience

Despite these risks, embedded finance offers FIs a unique advantage: the ability to develop a single view of a customer across all brands on a platform, enabling better detection of unusual patterns spanning multiple journeys.

To preserve the benefits of embedded finance and meet regulatory expectations, the industry must adopt a network‑defence mindset, recognising that AML risk is shared, but accountability is not.

For Regulated Financial Institutions

  • Treat embedded finance oversight as equivalent to correspondent banking relationships due to the reliance placed on the (unregulated) brand.
  • Conduct rigorous assessments of the brand and platform’s controls before onboarding and continuously thereafter for any lapses in standards or changes required as the regulatory requirements change.
  • Monitor any sub‑outsourcing chains including CDD providers and onboarding vendors.

For Brands

  • Understand the customer journey is a critical part of the regulated FI’s AML framework, not just a conversion pipeline.
  • Align design choices to avoid inadvertently enabling criminal exploitation (e.g., step‑skipping, weak verification prompts).
  • Invest in AML awareness training, even where the brand is unregulated.

For Embedded Finance Platforms

  • Build control aligned architecture, including strong identity verification, secure data routing, and auditable onboarding logic.
  • Provide FIs with better transparency into customer journeys and risk signals.
  • Ensure consistent standards across all brands integrated through the platform.

Growth and Risk Managed in Parallel

Embedded finance is a powerful engine for economic growth, competition, and consumer benefit.

However, the model also introduces distributed operational structures, intermediated relationships, and complex accountability chains that criminals are already exploiting.

For embedded finance to deliver on its enormous potential, regulated FIs offering this product, must recognise that they are effectively becoming mini‑regulators within these ecosystems. Only by strengthening oversight, enhancing cooperation, and aligning incentives across the chain can the industry maintain trust while continuing to innovate.

How HKA can Help

HKA helps brands, embedded finance platforms and regulated FIs to collectively meet UK regulatory financial crime obligations and individually ensure they are meeting their contractual obligations.

  • For FIs: we carry out independent assurance and build robust oversight programmes.
  • For brands: we provide targeted coaching, training, assurance and framework development including for those that are less familiar with the regulatory and FI framework and expectations.
  • For embedded finance platforms:  we assess and/or remediate the control framework to ensure the data received by the FI meets the right standards.

[1] ClearBank | The embedded economy

[2] navigating-the-path-to-embedded-finance-eba-2024-1.pdf

[3] SME Finance Survey


Priya Giuliani

Partner

priyagiuliani@hka.com

Expert Profile

Priya Giuliani is a specialist in financial crime investigations & compliance with nearly 30 years’ experience, including a decade as a Partner. She specialises in helping clients on a proactive basis to assess and manage the risk of financial crime including assessing governance, oversight, conduct, and training Senior Managers and Boards. Her investigative experience provides insight in to how various financial crime types (e.g. money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing, sanctions and tax evasion, bribery, corruption and fraud) can occur, including through the use of professional enablers, and the controls required to manage these risks effectively. Priya has been appointed on many Skilled Person engagements. Widely regarded as a well-qualified and highly experienced expert in financial crime risk management and investigations. She understands risk well and works with clients to assess and develop proportionate and effective control frameworks.

Noemi Klein

Director

noemiklein@hka.com

Expert Profile


Noémi Klein has over ten years’ experience in financial crime investigations and compliance. She advises organisations on anti‑money laundering, fraud prevention, and anti‑bribery and corruption, supporting senior leadership, boards, counsel, and regulators.

She has particular expertise in sanctions advisory, high‑risk client portfolio management, trade finance and supply chain risk, and regulatory‑driven remediation programmes, including work under the FCA’s Skilled Person framework. Noémi has held both consulting and senior in‑house roles at global banks across Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

Architect’s Perspective: Fire safety and digital records in dispute resolution

Article

Architect’s Perspective: Fire safety and digital records in dispute resolution


HKA’s Magdalena Prus and Sarah Keyte consider information management tools which help support the Golden Thread requirements, their benefits, and the typical flaws in dispute resolution which prevent these tools from reaching their potential.


THE BUILDING Safety Act 2022 (BSA) prompted a transformative shift in the approach to building safety in England and Wales, driven by lessons from the Grenfell tragedy. It introduces new responsibilities and oversight mechanisms, and promotes a cultural shift toward greater accountability and transparency, to ensure building design and construction comply with safety regulations, particularly around fire safety.

Central to the reforms introduced by the BSA, and the secondary legislation, is the ‘Golden Thread’, a structured, digital record of safety-critical information produced during the design and construction of a building and maintained throughout a building’s lifecycle. While the Golden Thread is often discussed in terms of regulatory compliance, its real significance increasingly lies in how digital records frame accountability and evidence in future disputes. In other words, the Golden Thread ensures that accurate, accessible, and up-to-date safety information is available to all stakeholders – from designers and contractors to building owners and regulators. It also supports accountability (who did what, when and how), transparency (ensuring that safety decisions are based on reliable data), and continuity (that is, preservation of knowledge during ownership changes and building phases).¹ Generally speaking, the Golden Thread is critical for making informed decisions relating to fire safety throughout a building’s life cycle.

This article discusses common data environments and information management tools marketed as aiding Golden Thread compliance.

Common data environments

ISO 19650-1 defines a common data environment (CDE) as the “agreed source of information for any given project or asset, for collecting, managing and disseminating each information container through a managed process”.² In simple terms, project stakeholders use CDEs to share, store, and manage project information. CDE guidance is available for free on the UK BIM Framework website.³ CDEs are now mandatory in public sector projects and increasingly recognised as a cornerstone of good information management.⁴

Section 88 of the BSA introduces the requirement to keep and update the relevant information about Higher-Risk Buildings (HRBs), but it does not specify the format or any particular technology that must be used to comply with the Golden Thread. The secondary legislation provides further guidance on how to prepare or structure the Golden Thread.⁵ In summary, the information needs to be digital, accessible and easily transferable, accurate and up-to-date, secure, intelligible to the intended users, and consistent in language, terminology, and definitions.

Benefits of CDEs to projects

CDEs are typically intended to act as a single source of truth for project information. At its most basic, a well organised CDE makes it easier to find key information. This is beneficial to all parties. CDEs can ensure project stakeholders are working from the appropriate revisions of drawings, models, schedules, and documents. This is typically done using cloud-based platforms, allowing parties to collaborate remotely.

CDEs can help promote accountability. Defined workflows can make it obvious who owns each document, approval, or revision. As a result of improvements in data analytics, CDEs (and the dashboards they can host) can provide insights into critical activities and help identify potential risks. A dashboard may highlight overdue Requests for Information (RFIs) to the user responsible for responding to them.

It is difficult to quantify the return on investment for CDE implementation. A 2021 KPMG report suggested that for every £1 invested in information management, between £5.10 and £6 of direct labour productivity gains could be made.⁶ However, in our experience, when setup and managed well, a well-organised CDE can help project stakeholders manage information and work efficiently. This prevents re-works, which is beneficial to all project stakeholders.

In addition to document management, some CDEs are capable of hosting models, aiding clash detection and coordination efforts.⁷ This can help democratise Building Information Modelling (BIM), by allowing the wider project team to work collaboratively without the need for proprietary software.

Benefits of CDEs during dispute resolution

Under the Civil Procedure Rules Part 35 (CPR Part 35), an expert’s overriding duty is to give the court an independent opinion on matters within his/her area of expertise. Expert witnesses do not have first-hand experience of the projects they give opinions on. A well-managed,detailed CDE can give insights into who did what, when, (and sometimes how and why). In our experience, this can give useful, factual, contemporaneous evidence, which is preferable to conjecture.

In fire engineering disputes, expert witnesses may use CDE records to understand how the design evolved over ime and verify claims made by parties. For example, CDE records may show: when files were uploaded; authors; download logs; workflows; comments; and approvals or rejections. This enables construction of clear timelines and can aid understanding of the project, including the decision-making process relating to fire safety aspects of the project.

When asking HKA experts about their experiences working with CDEs, the largest CDE issued to our team housed over one million files. These were related to a major citywide infrastructure project. Files had been produced over a ten year period by more than thirty designers, consultants, contractors, and subcontractors. Documents could be searched by discipline, date, status, document number (all of which followed consistent naming conventions), description, or content.

Figure 1: Example of what a CDE looks like. An audit log of files can typically be exported from CDEs.

Many popular CDE solutions mention the Golden Thread in their product marketing (e.g. Autodesk construction Cloud⁸, Asite⁹, and Zutec10, to name a few). As shown in Figure 1, records from the CDE platform can often be extracted into excel.

Many CDEs have useful audit trail functionality. Aconex, a popular CDE, describes how “the Aconex audit trail records the changes made to documents, mail and reports in Aconex. It lets you see who was responsible for which decisions”.¹¹

CDE records may be used by experts to check whether the data trail in the CDE aligns with claims. These records may be used to visualise a timeline of when each party shared do cuments, and what the approval timeline looked like. This can give a holistic view of the project design and can aid the court/tribunal in better understanding of the project. CDE event log records can also be used for more granular purposes. For example, event logs may be used to track who viewed, edited, or downloaded a particular document and when.¹²

This data trail makes it easier, for example, to demonstrate that a party was or was not aware, or should have been aware, of key facts or documents at some particular point in time.

A poorly managed CDE can also be useful in dispute resolution, especially if standard of care or breach of contract claims relate to information management.

What can go wrong with CDE records?

There is a significant disparity in the quality of records we uncover during our forensic investigations. However, most failures are not technological, they are contractual, behavioural, or governance-related.

  • Choice and management of CDE: Not all records are created equally – and the same applies to the various CDEs available on the market, as well as the quality‑control procedures governing them. In our experience, some CDEs have a better audit trail functionality than others, so choice of CDE impacts quality of records. For example, one CDE solution analysed in our research did not support the extraction of detailed records.

  • Writing in the sand: Not all records are permanent – a party may have used a CDE during the project, but may not have downloaded records from it. While this can be rectified if the CDE is still functional, a CDE may be shut down after project completion. Records can be lost, or difficult to recover. At the outset of the project, it is arguably prudent to agree who controls the CDE, who will have access to it in future, and in what circumstances as part of the contract documents. However, this often is not the case.

  • Contractual uncertainty: Construction contracts often do not specify what happens to a party’s CDE access in the event of a dispute. While clause 5.5 of the ISO 19650 protocol¹³ states that the noncontrolling party will have “…reasonable access to the information in the CDE Solution and workflow…insofar as necessary to perform its obligations…”, this language is open to interpretation.

    The party who controls the CDE can be a powerful gatekeeper. CDE access may be rescinded by the CDE controller if a dispute arises. Akin to the scenario in Trant Engineering Ltd v. Mott MacDonald Ltd [2017] EWHC 2061 (TCC), where a client sought an injunction to gain access to the CDE, access for non-controlling parties can be uncertain and potentially unstable.

    This issue can be frustrating in disputes, as one team of experts may have access to the CDE, and the opposing experts may be forced to work without it. Having been on both sides of this issue, it is typically preferable to have CDE access.

  • Digital skills gaps: Similarly, many construction lawyers remain unaware of the benefits CDE records can have in dispute resolution. Without improvements to digital understanding, lawyers may not appreciate the importance of advising clients to preserve CDE records.

    However, having observed a lawyer successfully navigate the employer’s CDE and BIM models to substantiate claims, it is evident that those who invest in developing these skills may present more compelling arguments, particularly as digital transformation continues to expand the range of available evidence.

  • Permissions vary: Depending on who controls the CDE (usually a client or a contractor), permissions of other parties (e.g. subcontractors) may vary. A as a main contractor. This may leave a subcontractor in a less advantageous position when pursuing claims. This raises a question whether the model should be under the ‘ownership’ of the project rather than an individual party.

  • Importance of backups: It is prudent for each project stakeholder to download records from the CDE and ensure copies of documentation uploaded to the CDE are backed up to an accessible domain under its own control. This gives each business control if relations break down. While this safety measure increases the cost of data storage, they are often negligible in relation to the cost of legal fees.
Figure 2: Asite Cognitive CDE AI function (Source: Asite)¹⁵


How might these tools improve in the future?

As artificial intelligence tools continue to be integrated into CDEs, some service providers are bringing Large Language Models (LLMs) into their platforms. For example, in May 2025, Asite announced their “Cognitive CDE”.¹⁴ As shown in Figure 2, among other functions, this tool answers users’ questions using project data and attempts to identify relevant documents. This is arguably a significant step towards making project information more accessible, particularly on complex projects with extensive documentation.

In practice, the potential value of such tools becomes clear when considering the types of searches that can be undertaken. In fire engineering related disputes, the searches would include drawings, specifications, designdecision records, change control procedures, review and approval logs, inspections records and on-site reports highlighting quality issues, clashes, etc. These are the types of information that parties currently obtain through e-discovery platforms, usually after additional steps of exporting, downloading, and re-uploading data. An LLM embedded within the CDE could in principle perform similar tasks, reducing this administrative burden and, maybe in the future, enabling targeted questions such as: “Who approved the compartmentation details and when?”.

While a discussion on LLMs in expert evidence is a topic worthy of its own article, LLM outputs will still require careful validation before they can be relied upon in an expert’s analysis.

Due to the delay between technology adoption during construction and the time typically taken for claims to arise, it may be some time before experts are given access to a CDE with integrated AI tools. However, in the context of Golden Thread compliance, such tools can help the project team to quickly locate safety-critical information across a large volume of design, construction, and maintenance records. By enabling accurate and transparent retrieval of project information, LLMs may help strengthen the continuity and accessibility of information required by the BSA.

Conclusion

CDEs are transforming how the construction industry manages and preserves project information, including the installation of fire safety elements and data trails relating to fire safety design.

When implemented correctly, CDEs can support Golden Thread compliance by producing accurate and accessible records. They not only enhance accountability and transparency in the context of the BSA, but also provide great evidential value in dispute resolution. In practice, this means navigating through safety-critical information quicker and, with integrated AI tools, in a more targeted way. As with any emerging technology, effective use of a CDE requires correct setup and proactive quality control over information management.

The future is already here for those who already benefit from data-rich record trails. For others, records may not feel as important until it is too late. The quote “A party to a dispute… will learn three lessons (often too late); the importance of records, the importance of records, and the importance of records”¹⁶, underlines the importance of record keeping for the purposes of forensic investigations. Adequate digital records often enable experts to reconstruct decisions, timelines, and installation quality (what was done, by who, where, and when). This ability to work efficiently can lower the cost of legal fees and expert opinions in dispute resolution.

Depending on whether a CDE was set up and managed appropriately, experts may find themselves swimming gracefully in a data lake or laboriously wading through a data swamp. Whilst both can generate useful, factual, contemporaneous evidence of performance, the construction industry should treat digital information management as a shared responsibility. Owners and clients need to drive governance and CDE adoption, and require clear accountability for data quality across the supply chain. Contractors and designers should prioritise the quality of the information they produce, including accuracy, completeness, and permanence of the records. The information should be treated as part of the built asset and not as an administrative burden or afterthought. Lawyers and experts should engage with digital evidence at an early stage to understand the structure and audit
trails within CDEs as a means of strengthening the quality and reliability of the evidence.

Alongside the benefits, there are some challenges with digital records. To realise the potential, digital skills in the industry (from operatives to legal teams) need to improve, and both operatives and overseeing staff will need appropriate training in the use of new technology. Furthermore, contracts will need to evolve to specify how we capture the useful trails of digital breadcrumbs, enabling future building users to follow the paths taken by project participants.

The technology needs to be driven forward by competent professionals, however, technology may only help us work efficiently if contracts give us the necessary access and permissions.

Footnotes

  1. https://buildingsafety.campaign.gov.uk/building-safetyregulator-making-buildings-safer/building-safetyregulator-news/understanding-the-golden-thread/
  2. ISO 19650-1: 2018 ‘Organization and digitization of information about buildings and civil engineering
    works, including building information modelling (BIM) – Information management using building information modelling. Part 1: Concepts and principles’, 3.3.15.
  3. https://imiframework.org/standards/
  4. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6312222de90e075880923330/14.116_CO_
    Construction_Playbook_Web.pdf
  5. For example, The Higher-Risk Buildings (Management of Safety Risks etc) (England) Regulations 2023, Regulation 7; The Building (Higher-Risk Buildings Procedures) (England) Regulations 2023, Regulation 31.
  6. https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2021/06/cdbb-econ-value-of-im-kpmg-atkins-main-report-new.pdf
  7. https://construction.autodesk.com/resources/accvideos/2d-3d-walkthrough-3/
  8. https://www.autodesk.com/blogs/construction/maintaining-the-golden-thread-part-1/
  9. https://www.asite.com/blogs/what-is-the-golden-threadof-information
  10. https://zutec.com/resources/golden-thread-cde-in-usebuildings-booklet
  11. https://help.aconex.com/documents/how-do-versioncontrol-and-the-aconex-audit-trail-work/
  12. https://help.aconex.com/documents/view-the-event-logto-see-which-users-have-accessed-or-changed-a/
  13. https://ukbimframework.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Information-Protocol-to-support-BSEN-
    ISO19650-2.pdf
  14. https://www.asite.com/news/cognitive-cde-release
  15. https://www.asite.com/hubfs/Cognitive%20CDE%20mockup%20for%20two%20pager%202-1.png
  16. Max W Abrahamson, Engineering Law and the ICEContracts, 4th Edition Applied Science Publishers 1979.

Magdalena Prus

Associate Technical Director

magdalenaprus@hka.com

Expert Profile

Magdalena is a Chartered Architect with over 14 years’ experience in the construction industry and an Associate Technical Director at HKA Global. As an expert witness/forensic architect, Magdalena has been involved in investigations and analysis of evidence relating to various architectural and construction issues across the UK, including design and building defects in internal and external fire protection.

Sarah Keyte

Technical Director

sarahkeyte@hka.com

Expert Profile

Sarah is a chartered construction manager and testifying expert witness specialising in information management and building information modelling. She uses digital tools to aid construction dispute resolution. Sarah holds a MSc in C onstruction Law and Dispute Resolution, was recognised by Autodesk in their annual global ‘40 under 40’ awards program, and is a Lexology ‘future leader’.


Readiness on Construction Projects in times of Geopolitical Uncertainty

Article

Readiness on Construction Projects in times of Geopolitical Uncertainty

by Anand Udayakumar

Purpose

Global construction markets are once again feeling the strain as geopolitical shocks reverberate through supply chains, procurement pipelines, and construction sites. Contractors are reporting rising material costs, disrupted logistics, stalled fabrication, and tightening security controls. These pressures are not confined to projects within conflict zones but are increasingly impacting projects or contracts thousands of miles away through disrupted shipping corridors, sanctions, energy volatility, and heightened insurance premiums which are all threatening to derail planned delivery.

During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, construction projects benefit from enhanced readiness and structured strategies to manage unpredictable risks. An operating mindset that integrates significant readiness, efficient resource prioritisation, and prompt decision-making becomes crucial.

The thinking behind this article draws from my previous experience in conflict-affected and high-risk environments:

Real Scenario 1 – Terrorism-related disruptions and hostilities on a cross-border hydroelectric megaproject in the Indian subcontinent presented difficulties for contractor’s performance, resulting in contractor’s termination and liquidation of securities.

Real Scenario 2 – One of world’s major immersed tunnel projects suffered critical disruption to custom vessel production due to a conflict situation in Europe leading to contested claims and dispute escalation.

A Potential Roadmap

By reflecting on what would likely have been effective in these real‑world scenarios, a ten‑stage framework is set out below. The application of these stages is intended to be project‑specific, including its nature, geographic context, stage of completion, technical complexity, stakeholder dynamics, and the unique pressures arising from operating in or around conflict‑affected environments.

Stage 1: Centralised Control & Enhanced Reactiveness

When conflict hits, governance becomes the initial line of defence. The core idea being appropriate/increased coordination between execution, planning, procurement, commercial and claims teams, including creation and management of a centralised/singular dashboard (covering for example, top packages, route and cost/time exposures) to facilitate real-time tracking and enhanced record keeping.

For heightened reactiveness, this governance structure is encouraged to be reinforced with proper chain of command to facilitate quick/reasoned decision making.

Stage 2: Actual Impact Identification

Failure to identify actual impact — as opposed to assumed or generic consequences — is one of the most frequent and damaging errors. The project can often usefully be segmented into discrete impact areas by geography, system, trade, or work package. Each impact could potentially be linked to a clearly defined causative event, bounded within a demonstrable time window and with risk allocation attributed to the correct party.

The objective would be to produce a targeted list of critical impact areas. While preliminary views on cost and time may emerge, priority to establishing systems that allow precise task level identification and alignment with the programme is likely to be helpful.

Stage 3: Operating within Contractual and Legal Confines

Prior to escalating an impact, consideration of mitigation strategies might cater to the project’s best interests. Focus on impacts that specifically trigger contractual entitlement should be rigorously tested against all available contractual routes for relief.

In conflict‑driven contexts, these commonly include force majeure or exceptional events, change in law (including sanctions), allocation of employer and contractor risks, suspension or termination thresholds, price adjustment mechanisms, prolongation and disruption compensation, and programme and extension of time provisions.

Critically, contractual analysis is suggested to be undertaken alongside applicable legal (i.e., statutory and regulatory requirements). Reliance on contract alone, particularly where new or amended laws apply, has the potential to expose parties to unexpected compliance and entitlement risks.

Stage 4: Quantifying the Cost Impact

After establishing entitlement, the next stage focuses on setting a clean/robust benchmark against which these impacts could be measured. From a cost quantification perspective, an objective approach that facilitates the identification of cost impacts tends to be most effective. This allows for clear categorisation of impacts, which may include direct disruption, time-related preliminaries, labour inefficiencies, logistics and freight escalation, material shortages, compliance costs, security measures, and financing impacts.

Understanding price posturing (fixed or subject to escalation), deploying relevant quantification methodologies, and placing reliance on credible sources of contract or external sources of cost data can serve to help.

Stage 5: Tracing the Path of Delay

Delay analysis in conflict-affected environments are particularly sensitive, given the prevalence of concurrent pressures. The starting point focusing on a robust and logic‑sound baseline programme that accurately reflects pre‑conflict conditions is likely to benefit.

Conflict related events could then be traced through the programme to identify their effect on critical and near critical activities. The analysis may benefit from carefully distinguishing delay caused by conflict situation or imposed restrictions from preexisting deficiencies, contractor risk events, or unrelated employer changes. It is generally advisable to rely only on delay that is both causative and critical for time entitlement.

Stage 6: Notice Strategy & Time-Bar Protection

Procedural compliance often plays a crucial role in consideration of claims. It is generally advised to comply with all applicable contractual notice obligations, including early warnings, force majeure notices, delay notifications, reservations of rights, and interim particulars, to be triggered promptly and consistently by reference in particular to the express contractual provisions.

By having regard to the requirements of applicable provisions, notices should seek to provide as much information as is reasonably possible under the circumstances explicitly to identify the conflict event relied upon, its operational consequences, and its anticipated time and cost impact, while retaining flexibility to update as conditions evolve. Adopting a disciplined notice strategy while protecting entitlement against time bars has the potential to evidence proactive contract management. Adherence to time-bar provisions may be prudent, even in jurisdictions where its compliance may not be thought to require rigorous enforcement.

Stage 7: Mitigation Measures & Re-Baseline Programme

Demonstrating reasonableness through active mitigation can be particularly important in conflict-affected projects. A structured mitigation register is advised for critical activities, capturing options such as alternative sourcing, specification changes, rerouted logistics, split shipments, resequencing, or demobilisation and remobilisation strategies.

Effort should be made to assess options against feasibility, safety, cost, and contractual constraints, with clear reasons for proposals made/decisions taken. In tandem, a revised and transparent rebaseline programme should be encouraged to reflect restricted access, extended lead times, and the redefined critical path imposed by conflict conditions.

Stage 8: Subcontractor & Supply Chain Management

Alignment between subcontractor and supplier positions with the main contract is often best supported through consistent flow‑down of notices, preservation of back‑to‑back rights, and early engagement on matters such as delay, price escalation, and performance risk. Careful consideration of risks assumed by the contractor, particularly where those risks fall outside the subcontractor’s scope or do not pass through contractually, is important.

Specific attention is generally recommended required in relation to labour availability, cross‑border movement, single‑source dependencies, and suppliers exposed to geopolitical risk. Early intervention in these areas can help reduce the likelihood of cascading disruption that may otherwise escalate and adversely affect the project as a whole.

Stage 9: The ‘Claim’ Stage

This stage focuses on converting entitlement into a substantiated and defensible claim relying on contemporaneous records—programme updates, correspondence, procurement data, cost records, and market indices to demonstrate clear cause‑and‑effect narrative linking conflict‑related events. Depending on the claim’s complexity and the importance it represents, working jointly with reputable external claim consultants having expertise in handling such situations is likely to strengthen outcomes.

Stage 10: Exploring Multiple Resolution Pathways

The ongoing exploration of available resolution pathways can assist in avoiding formal disputes and facilitating settlement, with escalation typically reserved as a measure of last resort. The suitability of any approach will generally depend on factors such as the strength of the evidential record, prevailing financial pressures, the status of any continuing commercial relationships, and the parties’ respective dispute appetites.

Early involvement of appropriate legal counsel is often a critical consideration in navigating these issues effectively. In addition, the engagement of neutral, independent experts can be valuable in clarifying areas of dispute and supporting the identification of potential settlement positions. Prior to embarking on full arbitration or litigation proceedings, third‑party expert analysis is frequently beneficial in informing strategy and resolution prospects.

Conclusion

Conflict-affected situations can extend far beyond disruption to construction progress and materially alter the wider operational landscape. Conventional approaches, such as standard project controls, reactive claims strategies, and fragmented governance arrangements, are often ill- suited to environments characterised by conflict, sanctions, geopolitical instability, volatile pricing, and energy constraints. In such circumstances, a deliberate shift towards a readiness-driven mindset is likely to be more effective. Adopting this approach could have better preserved contractor’s position and mitigated tensions between the parties in the two real scenarios initially outlined.

The staged framework suggested in this article is designed to encourage contractors to transition from reactive firefighting to structured readiness when conflict strikes. Preparedness under conflict conditions is not about anticipating every scenario, but about building systems capable of protecting the contractor’s and the project’s interests as situations evolve.

In uncertain and volatile environments, contractor’s readiness should not be exceptional, it should be natural.

Anand Udayakumar

Senior Consultant

anandudayakumar@hka.com

Anand Udayakumar is a Senior Consultant at HKA, based in London and formerly Dubai (2021–22). A qualified lawyer, he brings 10+ years of experience across 100+ projects in construction, infrastructure and energy, advising on legal, contractual, quantum and delay issues throughout Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East.

Combining private practice, in-house and consulting experience, Anand excels at synthesising complex facts, navigating multi stakeholder environments, and delivering strategic, pragmatic advice on megaprojects and high value disputes. 


Float as a Project Resource: A Proposed Approach to Allocation and Use

Article

Float as a Project Resource: A Proposed Approach to Allocation and Use

by Dr. Franco Mastrandrea

Purpose

This note addresses the concept of float in construction scheduling, being the amount of delay an activity can absorb without adversely impacting subsequent activities or the project completion date. It outlines different types of float (total, independent, free, and interfering) and emphasises its significance when assessing localised delays, costs, and contractor resource planning.

It examines the contentious issue of float ownership in relation to a traditional construction contract, noting that courts and industry guidance differ on whether float belongs to the contractor, the employer, or the project. The note proposes a distinction between original float (in the contractor’s programme) and emergent float (arising from planning errors, neutral events, or party-caused delays leading to project delays).

Understanding who may legitimately consume float is central to assessing both entitlement to time and financial recovery.

The contractor is here generally regarded as entitled to original float, while emergent float belongs to the party whose actions created it, with neutral-event float belonging to the project.

Examples illustrate how float may change as the critical path shifts and how parties may benefit from the float that arises during project delivery.

Understanding Float: Types and Terminology

A critical activity is one with no float. Activities with float are non – or sub-critical. Some activities may be critical for only part of their full duration. For example, the steel frame for a building may be critical up to the point when the roofing, cladding, or first‑fix MEP works can begin; it may be sub‑critical before or after that period.

Float takes various forms:

  • total float: being the total time by which one (or more) sub‑critical activities may be delayed before causing delay to subsequent activities and to project or milestone completion dates. Total float is thus not a measure of flexibility within individual activities, but is often a key project-wide measure.
  • activity (independent) float: being the difference between the early start and late start dates, or the early and late finish dates, of any sub‑critical activity.
  • free float: being the amount of time a sub‑critical activity can consume without affecting the early start of a subsequent activity.
  • interfering float: being the difference between total float and free float – a measure of the extent to which free float in a particular activity can be consumed without interfering with subsequent activities.

The critical path is dynamic and may shift, even frequently.[1] Float may also emerge (reduce or disappear) as a result of such shift(s).

Float is also significant when considering localised delays, yet it is often overlooked by delay analysts and disputing parties.[2]

Deferral

Where a sub‑critical activity is deferred in its start or performance, project completion may not be delayed, even if the entire float is consumed.[3] However, the contractor may still incur additional costs, such as:

  • where the duration of the activity once started remains as planned;[4] or
  • where the deferral impacts on the contractor’s planned deployment of resources.[5]

Prolongation

Conversely, if an activity begins on its planned early start date and finishes no later than its planned late finish date, there will be no delay to project completion[6] (and normally no need for an extension of project time), because the float consumed does not impinge on the start of the next planned activity.

However, the contractor may still incur additional time-sensitive costs, because the activity may have been prolonged, consuming independent float and, unless the contractor has reduced its resources, associated time-sensitive costs., such as localised management and supervision, and dedicated plant.

In this context, a localised delay claim, in which activity specific time-sensitive costs may be more easily identified and quantified, may yield a more favourable outcome than including such costs in a more precarious disruption claim.

Traditional Approaches to Float “Ownership”

The question of float ownership is often contentious. Tribunals have variously held that:

  • the contractor owns the float,[7] meaning, for example, that the employer is not entitled to use float to accommodate changes;[8]
  • the employer owns the float, on the basis that it has paid for a project that includes float and, unless the critical path is adversely impacted, the contractor can have no complaint. The challenge with that argument is that, as noted, localised deferral or prolongation caused by the employer are likely to come at additional cost to the contractor;
  • float belongs to the project, meaning whichever party reaches the float first is entitled to consume it.[9]

Limitations of Binary Ownership Models

I have suggested elsewhere that making everything turn on either “ownership” or critical path impact is neither adequate nor helpful.

Contracts sometimes make provision for float ownership. The SCL Protocol, for example, notes:[10]

“The ‘ownership’ of float causes particular arguments in disputes over entitlement to an EOT. A Contractor may argue that it ‘owns’ the float, because, in planning how it proposes to carry out the works, it has allowed additional or float time to give itself some flexibility in the event that it is not able to carry out the works as quickly as it planned. If, therefore, there is any delay to the Contractor’s progress for which the Contractor is not responsible, it may contend that it is entitled to an EOT, even if the delay to progress will not result in the contract completion date being missed, but merely in erosion of its float. On the other hand, an Employer may typically say that the Contractor has no EOT entitlement unless the delay to progress will result in a contract completion date being missed. So (the Employer may say) the project owns the float.”

It asserts that the parties “should ensure that this issue is addressed in their contracts”. However, prescribing exclusive float ownership may be a dubious directive given the dynamic nature of an unfolding project.[11]

A New Framework: Original vs. Emergent Float

A distinction between original float, and what I label ‘emergent’ float is considered appropriate.

Original Float

Original float refers to float built into the plan for the original works.[12]

Experience (consistent with reviews of contractors’ scheduling of works) suggests that a sounder presumption may be appropriate. The contractor will typically have planned and priced the original works based on its optimal use (including levelling) of labour and plant resources, including allowances for the contractor’s risk items and performance contingency. Replanning of that original work because of errors or inadequacies in that original scheduling, provided no project delay arises from any such replanning, may result in the erosion of float. On this basis, original float belongs to the contractor, because the contractor embeds float into its planned sequencing and risk allowances.

Emergent Float: Allocation Based on Causation

Emergent float can arise from:

  • correction of errors or inadequacies in the contractor’s original planning;
  • neutral post-contract events; and/or
  • post-contract events arising from either party’s acts, omissions or defaults

that generate project delay.

Pausing there and taking stock – subject always to the express contract terms,[13] the following general rules are offered:

  • the contractor “owns” and may take advantage of any original float.
  • the creator of emergent float “owns”, and may take advantage of, that float.
  • where emergent float arises from neutral events, it belongs to the project.

Application of the Framework: Case Categories

As already proposed, where float is generated during the execution phase as a result of acts omissions or default of the parties, the responsible party should be entitled to take advantage of the float created.

Employer-Caused Emergent Float

Thus, if the employer causes critical delay by, for example:

  • ordering additional works falling on the critical path, or
  • providing design information late,

then the employer may consume any emergent float generated in other activities by ordering varied work, or by deferring the provision of information in relation to the activities in that float, without incurring additional project-wide prolongation costs.[14]

Where the employer’s breach generates critical delay, additional and less obvious advantages may accrue.[15]

Contractor-Caused Emergent Float

Conversely, where emergent float is generated by the contractor’s correction of errors in original planning or by acts omissions or defaults in performance, the contractor may consume that float, and not be deprived of it by the employer whether by ordering variations or otherwise, albeit while still being exposed to payment of delay damages to the employer by reason of the resulting project overrun.

Neutral-Event Emergent Float

Where emergent float is generated by neutral events:

  • and critical delay which is project-wide – such as exceptional weather – is suffered, opportunities to exploit float may be limited, as work in other activities may equally be adversely impacted by that weather. Exceptions may include internal or other activities in float which are non-weather sensitive, such as design or administrative tasks.
  • and critical delay is suffered which is activity specific – such as a steelworkers’ strike – opportunities may arise in other unaffected activities in emergent float.

Dr. Franco Mastrandrea

Partner

francomastrandrea@hka.com

Expert Profile

Dr. Franco Mastrandrea is a Chartered Quantity Surveyor and Chartered Arbitrator with over 40 years of experience in the construction industry. He has acted as expert on more than 50 international project management, delay and quantum-related disputes.

From London to Australia and Canada to Antarctica, Franco has extensive and diverse dispute resolution expertise. With an established record in drafting, interpreting and applying commercial terms in contracts, he successfully combines both knowledge and experience under traditional cross-examination and hot-tubbing.

Franco’s expert commissions cover a wide range of industries including oil and gas in Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, North Africa and South East Asia; transport infrastructure in the Caribbean and the UK; power generation, from CCGT to windfarms, in the UK; and numerous building and infrastructure projects around the world.


References

[1] Thus, in Fortec Constructors et al v. United States 8 Cl. Ct. 490 (1985), Yock J said for the US Court of Claims at [106]:

‘Indeed, Mr. Cook acknowledged that delay encountered in completion of a non-critical item may make that item critical so that ‘every month, conceivably, the critical path would change’, which is precisely what happened in the instant case.’

Cf. Dependable Mechanical Systems Inc. v. Four Seasons Site Development Ltd.
2019 ONSC 5798, at [18]:

‘Critical path on a project can change month-to-month… Scheduled work that was not previously on the critical path may become critical path work as a result of other project delays.’

[2] For a more detailed review of such delays, see Mastrandrea, F, “Localised Delays: The Poor Relation in Construction Claims Appraisals?”, [2023] ICLR 112.

[3] Unless, in conjunction with loss of float in other activities, shared or total float is exceeded. For the sorts of complications that can arise where the deferral does impact the critical path, consider Bacal Construction (Midlands) Ltd. v. Northampton Development Corp. (1975) 8 BLR 91, CA, in which the design/build contractor for 518 dwellings priced for a 65 week contract period with handover of dwellings to the employer to begin in week 43. The employer wanted handover of completed dwellings to begin earlier, from week 34, to which the contractor agreed, subject to closure of a lane before the work started. In the event, the lane closure was not achieved for some 26 weeks – too late to allow the 34 weeks’ programme to be achieved, a failure attributed to the employer. On a dispute over the meaning of a letter thereafter insisted on by the contractor providing for the recovery by the contractor of abortive expenditure, the Court of Appeal held that such expenditure included that resulting from the disruption of the 34 week programme due to the delayed closure of the lane – which would not have been incurred if the contractor had throughout followed its original 43 week programme, and expenditure in any overrun of the overall 65 week period had the original 43 week programme been followed.

[4] Additional costs might include re-planning, prolonged storage of materials and/or goods, escalation in prices for labour plant or materials, standing time for commissioned resources such as labour or plant which have no alternative work to go to, loss of contribution to overheads, additional borrowing, etc.

[5] Additional costs might include re-planning, learning curve effects through the need to introduce additional “green” resources, and efficiency losses through congestion.

[6] Subject to the same proviso on shared or total float being exceeded.

[7] See, for example, Weaver-Bailey Contractors, Inc. v. United States 19 Cl. Ct. 474 (1990) providing, at page 481, the following example:

‘Suppose that as part of the job, the contractor promised to build a fence along two edges of the property, and that building the fence will take 20 days. No other work depends on the completion of the fence, so delaying work on the fence until December 11, 1989 will not put the contractor in danger of late completion. In other words, building the fence is an activity with a lot of float time. However, float time is never unlimited. If on December 20 the contractor has yet to begin the fence, or if there is more than 11 days’ worth of fencing work to be done as of December 20, then the contractor will not finish the job on time.… Consider now the effect on our hypothetical contractor if on December 1, before fencing work had begun, the buyer of the house told the contractor that he would like all four sides of the property to be fenced, thereby doubling the fencing work. Clearly the contractor could not complete the entire project by the end of the year, but through no fault of his own.…’

In England, the matter appears first to have been explicitly addressed in Ascon Contracting Ltd. v. Alfred McAlpine Construction Isle of Man Ltd. (1999) 66 Con. LR 119, (2000) 16 Const. L.J. 316, in which HH Judge John Hicks, QC, held in relation to a sub-contract dispute that the contractor was entitled to the main contract float:

‘[91].…It does not seem to be in dispute that McAlpine’s programme contained a “float” of five weeks in the sense, as I understand it, that had the work started on time, and had all sub-programmes for sub-contract works and for elements to be carried out by McAlpine’s own labour been fulfilled without slippage the main contract would have been completed five weeks early. McAlpine’s argument seems to be that it is entitled to the “benefit” or “value” of this float….

[92] … The float is certainly of value to the main contractor in the sense that delays of up to that total amount, however caused, can be accommodated without involving him in liability for liquidated damages to the employer or, if he calculates his own prolongation costs from the contractual completion date (as McAlpine has here) rather than from the earlier date which might have been achieved, in any such costs.’.

[8]See, for example, Natkin & Co. v. George A. Fuller Co. and another 347 F.Supp. 17 (1972) for a finding of fact to that effect: ‘R… Neither total nor free float is to be used for changes.’

Cf. Commissioners of the State Bank of Victoria v. Costain Australia Ltd [1982] Vic SC 431, (1983) 5 BCLRS 193, in which Gobbo J in the Supreme Court of Victoria said:

‘The given facts did not indicate whether the delayed activity was critical. The extra work could be completed contemporaneously with the other works remaining to be completed. In those circumstances it could not be said that the given facts necessarily established that the variation had an effect upon the time required to complete… Another situation which is similar… is that where the builder has, by careful management, husbanded some saving in time. In that situation the builder should not be deprived of the benefit of such saving. Where an architect, with the benefit of knowledge of all the actual circumstances, makes a fair and reasonable extension, it seems unlikely that he would be able, in effect, to deprive the builder of the benefit of this saving by allocating it only to the extra work.’

[9] See, for example, the AACE International Recommended Practice No. 29R-03 for Forensic Schedule Analysis (RP 29R-03), 2011, Section 1.5 Underlying Fundamentals and General Principles B General Principles 3:

‘In the absence of contrary contractual language, network float, as opposed to project float, is a shared commodity between the owner and the contractor. In such a case float must be shared in the interest of the project rather than to the sole benefit of one of the parties to the contract.’

[10] Second Edition, 2017, Guidance Part B, paragraph 8.2.

[11] One of the potentially unanticipated consequences is immediately pointed to, at Guidance Part B, paragraph 8.3:

‘… Under contracts where the Employer Delay has to affect the contract completion date, if an Employer Delay occurs first and uses up all the total float, then the Contractor can find itself in delay and paying liquidated damages as a result of a subsequent Contractor Delay which would not have been critical if the Employer Delay had not occurred first. Under contracts where the Employer Delay only has to affect the Contractor’s planned completion date, the Contractor is potentially entitled to an EOT every time the Employer or CA delays any of its activities, irrespective of their criticality to meeting the contract completion date. Under the type of contract that is silent or ambiguous about float, uncertainty exists and disputes are likely to follow.’

[12] Whether the original programme was viable – a matter often unexplored by delay analysts – may be a separate consideration, beyond the scope of this article.

[13] See, for example, Lexicon, Inc. v. Icon Construction, Inc. 2009 WL 722715, in which a subcontract provided:

 ‘All float or slack time is for the exclusive use or benefit of (the Contractor and specified others),’ but not the sub-contractor.

One may wonder why a well-informed contracting party (here the sub-contractor) would willingly enter into such a one-sided arrangement.

[14] It is assumed here that the contractor will typically be entitled to recover the resulting project prolongation costs arising from the employer-caused critical delay.

Leaving to one side other potential costs such as disruption, the contractor should also be entitled to recover additional localised deferral or prolongation costs generated by such further varied work or deferred information flow where such costs do not form part of the valuation of the varied or other work.

[15] It may then be relevant to consider costs avoided as a result of the breach, such as

  • savings through reduced learning curve effects in those local work activities that can now be spread over a longer period with fewer resources, or
  • improved efficiencies working in less crowded than planned-for conditions.

 Media contact 

NameJill Dawson
TitleSenior Marketing and Communications Manager
Emailjilldawson@hka.com

Seeds of Resilience: Environmental Damage and Recovery in the Middle East Conflict

Article

Seeds of Resilience: Environmental Damage and Recovery in the Middle East Conflict

by Matt Ösund‑Ireland

The conflict in the Middle East is of grave concern, not just for the thousands of innocent people caught up locally, but also globally, as economic conditions tighten. Beyond the human tragedies and the rising cost of living, the conflict is creating environmental and social impacts that are already visible today, with many likely to endure for a long time to come.

The purpose of this article is not to provide a comprehensive review but to highlight some of the immediate and long-term effects. It draws on my personal experience of living and working in the region, as well as lessons from the 1990-91 Iraq invasion of Kuwait.[1]

Burning Oil: The Right to Breathe

Global media outlets captured the conflict in Kuwait with stark TV images of thick black smoke billowing from blazing oil fields. An estimated five million barrels worth of combustion-related pollutants were emitted into the air every day.[2] Similar scenes are apparent today, for example in the recent images of the oil refinery and fuel storage tanks near Bahrain airport.

There is, however, one crucial difference, proximity. Unlike the oil fields of Kuwait, these current facilities are located close to residential communities.  Short-term health impacts could be significant and would most likely be evident in rising hospital admissions. The longer-term effects will only become evident over time and may become harder to link directly to the conflict. 

Leaks and Deposits: Loss of Marine Habitat

In 1991 some four million barrels of oil were deliberately dumped into the Persian Gulf with the intention of blocking an amphibious landing. This became one of the largest oil spills in history, heavily contaminating beaches, sediments, mangroves, and coral ecosystems. The impacts of this spill were exacerbated by the atmospheric deposition of pollutants associated with the burning oil wells.

There are parallels with today. Not least, the recent bombing of Kharg Island, which, if it continues, could result in a significant oil spill of a similar scale to that in 1991. Kharg Island typically exported 1.3 to 1.6 million barrels of oil per day (increasing to three million barrels per day earlier this year in anticipation of conflict), and with 18 million barrels stored on the island facility.[3]

Conflict Waste: What Remains in the Soil

Conflict generates large volumes of waste, including hazardous waste, not only because of damage to assets and infrastructure, but also through military activity itself. A visit to the Iran-Iraq border in 2014 confirmed that extensive physical evidence from the 1980-88 war remained present in the landscape. Windblown sand now camouflages discarded ammunition, personal kit, food and spent fuel containers, packaging and vehicles as the environment begins to reclaim the land.

Similar scenes could be observed following the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, although less visible, l, was the depleted uranium from munitions used by the international coalition forces. These remnants remain highly hazardous to both humans and ecosystems, due to their persistence and potential for bioaccumulation over the longer term.

Access to Safe Water: A Human Right

There is increasing discussion about damage to power and desalination plants in the Gulf and the subsequent risks to maintaining clean water supplies for sanitation, drinking water and agriculture.[4] Any reduction in the working capacity of power and desalination plants and wastewater treatment will place more pressure on groundwater abstraction, which, almost without exception, is already unsustainable.[5]

Much of the drinking water supply in the region is bottled and transported by road, suggesting some resilience with increased access to external supplies. How sustainable this would be in the long term remains an ongoing question.

Seasonal changes will impact any vulnerabilities in resident populations. This is the ‘goldilocks’ time of year in the Gulf; nights are not too cold, and days are not too hot, in fact, it’s just right.  However, this will change within months as summer approaches and temperatures rise, often above 50°C.[6] Damage to power stations or distribution infrastructure will reduce air-conditioning capacity, presenting significant challenges for households, hospitals, schools and food distribution.

Restricted access to water, cooling and food will have immediate and lasting impacts on local communities, in particular the young and the elderly.

Lessons from Kuwait: Multilateral Compensation

The invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the subsequent Allied pushback in 1991 resulted in approximately $3 billion awarded in compensation for environmental and public health damage.[7] The pollution blanketed air, water, and soil across Kuwait and neighbouring states. This award formed part of a larger United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) settlement and was funded primarily by a percentage share of Iraq’s oil export revenues.

One further outcome of the UNCC compensation package was the establishment of the Kuwait Air Compliance Management Program, a long-term monitoring joint initiative of Kuwait Oil Company and the Kuwait Environmental Protection Agency designed to identify the extent of air pollution in Kuwait and to develop a strategy to reduce its impact.[8] Parts of this programme continue to this day with specialists from Germany, India, Kuwait, the Philippines, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States having contributed. The programme has provided an extensive and long-term evidence base of emissions data, ambient air quality and assessment of health impacts.  Having had a long-term involvement with this program I have seen a lot of changes over the decades. Abandoned vehicles and bullet-marked buildings have been cleared, and vast tracks of oil-contaminated sand now weathered and largely remediated. However, the memories of that time remain with the people and can still surface in conversation over a cup of tea.

Who pays? Evolving Approached to Environmental Accountability

Responsibility for the environmental and social cost of the current conflict remains undecided.

Traditionally the international regime of state responsibility has focused on bilateral relations (i.e. claimant/victim vs. respondent/tort-feasor). However, the UNCC introduced a new multilateral approach, recognising shared accountability of all states involved for the safeguarding of common concerns to protect and conserve the Earth’s natural heritage, irrespective of territorial boundaries.[9]

This legal accountability included:

  • precautionary monitoring to identify and assess long-term environmental risks
  • reimbursement of mutual assistance costs during environmental emergencies
  • obligation on claimants to mitigate and contain further damage;
  • valuation methods to ensure the remediation of lost ecological services
  • follow-up tracking to ensure remediation complied with agreed environmental objectives and standards (so-called ‘green conditionality’)

Whether this multilateral approach could be adopted for this current conflict remains to be seen. However, the precedent shows that environmental damage rarely respects borders and meaningful recovery requires cooperation across communities and ecosystems, not isolated interventions.

Matt Ösund‑Ireland

Partner

mattosund-ireland@hka.com

Expert Profile

Matt Ösund‑Ireland is a Chartered Environmentalist with more than 30 years’ experience advising governments, commercial organisations, and financial institutions on environmental strategy, compliance, impact assessment, and due diligence. His work spans air quality, climate change, carbon management and emissions reduction across aviation, transport, energy, manufacturing, and large‑scale infrastructure.

Matt has worked globally, including in regions affected by conflict, providing technical assessments and resilience planning in challenging regulatory and environmental conditions. A proven expert witness, he has testified under cross‑examination and supported major projects valued at up to £15 billion.


References

[1] What Was the Gulf War? | Imperial War Museums

[2] Iraq Burns Kuwaiti Oil Wells | History | Research Starters | EBSCO Research

[3] Kharg Island Statistics 2026 | Key Facts – The Global Statistics

[4] How targeting of desalination plants could disrupt water supply in the Gulf | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

[5] Groundwater sustainability assessment in the Middle East using GRACE/GRACE-FO data | Hydrogeology Journal | Springer Nature Link

[6] Weather in the Gulf Cooperation Council – statistics & facts | Statista

[7] State of Kuwait | United Nations Compensation Commission

[8] KOC E-Magazine

[9] (2) Compensation for Environmental Damage from the 1991 Gulf War

 

Media contact 

NameJill Dawson
TitleSenior Marketing and Communications Manager
Emailjilldawson@hka.com

The Regulatory Marathon: Keeping Pace with FCA Supervision

Article

The Regulatory Marathon: Keeping Pace with FCA Supervision

By Priya Giuliani

Over £186 million in fines, five criminal convictions, and a seven-fold increase in cancelled authorisations show that the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is running faster than ever. Navigating FCA supervision is not a sprint. It’s a marathon requiring stamina, strategy, and foresight. The regulator is setting the pace with data-led oversight and assertive interventions. If your compliance framework is not trained for endurance, you risk hitting the wall when the FCA comes calling.

This article explores:

  • How FCA supervision is evolving
  • The tools in the regulator’s kit
  • Practical steps to help your firm keep pace

The Direction of Travel

Be in no doubt that fighting financial crime remains at the centre of both government and regulatory agenda despite the broader focus on economic growth. Recent activity confirms this focus:

  • New Anti-Corruption Strategy (Dec 2025):[1] 123 commitments including reforms for the FCA to become the single professional services AML supervisor and expanded use of sanctions, signalling continued focus on integrity despite wider deregulatory themes
  • New Fraud Strategy (Mar 2025):[2] commitment to invest over £250 million between 2026 and 2029 to combat fraud, the largest reported crime type in England and Wales
  • First enforcement against a professional body supervisor (Nov 2025): censuring the Institute of Certified Bookkeepers for failures in its oversight under the Money Laundering Regulations (MLRs),[3] further supports the need for stronger oversight in this sector.
  • FCA’s strategic priority[4] emphasis on financial crime through stronger and faster interventions alongside fewer but more impactful formal investigations.[5]
  • Upcoming FATF Mutual Evaluation (due 2027): expect continued focus and change. In the pipeline are changes to the due diligence and information sharing requirements in the MLRs.[6]

These developments, and more to come, set the tone for a more assertive supervisory approach.

More Assertive and Data-Led Supervision

The FCA is running faster than ever, powered by data, technology and intelligence. If you’re still warming up while they’re already at mile 10, catching up will be tough.

Their portfolio-based model means they can spot harm early and intervene before you’ve reached the first water station. Recent enforcement data signals that the FCA is prioritising speed and deterrence, over lengthy investigations. Open enforcement operations fell from 188 to 130 during the year to March 2025, 37 final notices were issued, five criminal convictions were secured, fines exceeded £186 million and 1,456 firms had their authorisations cancelled.[7]

Advances in technology are powering more intrusive supervision. The FCA has expanded the population,[8] uses synthetic data to test sanctions screening tools,[9] and is piloting similar techniques for transaction monitoring. Inspections are rising too: 6% of firms were subject to desk-based or onsite reviews, a 15% increase, supported by a 22% growth in financial crime supervision headcount and the creation of specialist sanctions and fraud teams.[10]

Common failings persist: weak AML knowledge, inadequate policies, poor Customer Due Diligence, and misuse of Simplified Due Diligence. The FCA has been clear that firms which recognise issues early, take responsibility, remediate thoroughly and pay redress where necessary will be treated differently than those who delay or obfuscate.[11]

The Regulator’s Toolkit: A Growing Arsenal

The FCA’s toolkit is extensive[12] and increasingly deployed. Voluntary requirements (VREQs), variation of permission, Skilled Person reviews, attestations and own-initiative measures can be combined for maximum impact. These interventions can reshape business models, halt revenue streams, and demand significant resources. Firms that have endured them often speak of the scars left behind.

Skilled Person Reviews: The Ultimate Endurance Test

Think of a Skilled Person review as hitting ‘the wall’ in a marathon. It is painful, costly, and avoidable with the right training. These reviews appoint independent experts to assess systems, controls or conduct, and often recommend remediation. The majority to governance, controls, risk management, conduct and financial crime issues.[13]

Skilled Person reviews are highly intrusive, lengthy, take attention away from growth averaging[14] £690,0000 and often lasting 18-36 months for smaller firms, considerably longer for larger ones.  They are often combined with VREQs, which tend to curb revenue, so firms end up in a double whammy situation of higher costs and lower (or no) revenue.

Skilled Persons are also used in ‘monitorship’ roles while firms carry out remediation to provide the FCA with assurance that adequate progress is being made and any risks in the interim are mitigated appropriately. Our experts have been previously appointed in Skilled Person roles to:

Enhance a firm’s correspondent banking framework after multiple failed attempts to do this in-house, in a timely manner, that met the required standard.

Provide assurance over trade finance transactions prior to execution until the framework was fully remediated and embedded.

How to Prepare

Leaders should have confidence that their frameworks are robust, meet regulatory requirements & expectations, and demonstrate good industry practice. Confidence in your framework comes from credible assurance. Yet firms often stumble when internal or external auditors lack deep subject matter expertise, when scope is narrowed by cost, or when overseas internal audit teams misunderstand local requirements. Cultural barriers, such as fear of highlighting issues, compound these weaknesses, leaving senior management unable to exercise appropriate oversight.

If a Skilled Person appointment looms, act immediately. Engage experts with a proven track record to manage regulatory dialogue, shape strategy, and identify suitable candidates for the appointment. Most appointments (87%) allow the firm to nominate their preferred Skilled Person which will be considered for approval by the FCA (indirect appointment). Whilst the FCA has a panel for its own direct appointments, it is clearly stated on Requirement Notices and the FCA website that a firm can nominate any suitable firm to be their Skilled Person. The firm is responsible for assessing whether a Skilled Person is appropriate for its requirements.[15] Selecting the right firm, one which provides independence from you and the FCA, and applies senior judgement to truly assess a risk-based approach, is vital. The selection of the right Skilled Person for your business need is critical.

Unless you have a VREQ, which stops the majority of your business and therefore you can divert resources, it is likely you will need additional headcount to get through the review in as short a time as possible. The Skilled Person needs access to most parts of the firm, access to systems & controls, and a ton of evidence. The firm will need to ensure there are clear communication protocols in place and maintain their own log of information provided. Most firms find it helpful to prepare their workforce ahead of the visit to minimise disruption.

Scope creep during a Skilled Person appointment is a valid concern, however, the review should be guided by the Requirement Notice which typically is not open ended. If you think the Skilled Person appears to be going beyond the required scope, it is appropriate to question this. Bear in mind, where firms’ cultures do not encourage speaking up, we have observed on occasion that staff use the Skilled Person as an informal whistleblowing channel which may extend the scope, but this should be done in a transparent way in dialogue with the regulator.

It can’t be overstated that those firms that prepare early with robust frameworks rarely face this endurance test.

Voluntary Requirements: The ‘Voluntary Headlock’

Voluntary Requirements are anything but voluntary – they can feel like a headlock.  But they are increasing with a 52% increase in voluntary actions in the last two years. Notably firms are more cooperative in accepting voluntary requirements rather than the FCA imposing them formally, reflecting the regulator’s preference in many cases for swift agreed measures that deliver consumer protection and deterrence. However, these intervention actions can be the end of the road for smaller firms as they can stop all revenue, and remediation needs to be funded from reserves and shareholder injections. Capital and liquidity plans may be required to demonstrate how the firm will survive the period ahead.

Voluntary requirements are designed to restrict activities and mitigate risks swiftly. In those instances, where firms do not agree to voluntary requirements, the FCA can formally impose OIRECs. Refusing a voluntary requirement may raise questions about the firm’s cooperation with regulatory intervention, and it may struggle to rebuild a constructive dialogue for the future.  

The FCA uses VREQs as they encourage senior management engagement and mitigate risks swiftly. But, once a VREQ is place, and the risk is mitigated (for example, because there is no business, therefore no risk), the pressure to remediate and lift the VREQ falls on the firm.

VREQ’s can be difficult to operationalise. Agreeing to a VREQ without planning is like starting a race without hydration. You’ll quickly run out of steam. Recent breaches by Starling, Monzo, and CB Payments highlight the risks of weak governance and poor operationalisation. These failures were about execution, not intent. They show that poor planning can lead to serious compliance failures:

The common thread? Weak governance, poor communication, and inadequate testing.

In our experience, firms have signed VREQs without adequately considering governance arrangements and how they will operationalise their activity to comply with the terms. Removing a VREQ is equally challenging. It is typically removed after the FCA has the necessary assurance that remediated controls have been embedded and risks are being managed appropriately, typically through a Skilled Person review or other independent assessment. Strategic planning can offer possibilities to deviate from the norm.

Attestations: Mile Markers for Accountability

Attestations place personal accountability on senior leaders, requiring formal confirmation that actions will be taken, or completed, within a set timeframe. They are checkpoints: proof you are on track and not cutting corners. Failure to meet these commitments can escalate supervisory action and, under the Senior Manager’s Regime, increase the risk of individual enforcement. We are observing a larger number of individual fines. 55% of FCA enforcement fines (by number) related to individuals in 2025 and at the time of writing, 6 out of the 7 fines issued in 2026 are for individuals.

The number of attestations has increased exponentially, principally for thematic concerns. In 2024/25, the FCA had concerns that customer accounts may have been terminated due to their political beliefs, and in relation to thematic work relating to Consumer Duty outcome monitoring and product governance in the insurance sector.

Boards should treat attestations with the utmost seriousness, ensuring independent testing, strong evidence retention, and clear reporting lines.

Staying Ahead of the Pack

The regulator is increasingly assertive and data-led. It is resolving more issues through supervision, early interventions and voluntary outcomes, reserving formal enforcement for impactful deterrence. To stay ahead of the pack:

  1. Ensure the assurance you rely on is robust and credible to avoid in-depth supervision intervention.
  2. Act swiftly when supervisory tools are mentioned in discussions.
  3. Treat voluntary requirements and undertakings as firm-wide programmes, ensuring clear accountability, governance, communication and operationalisation.

The FCA’s pace will only quicken. Firms that prepare now will finish strong; those that don’t risk being left behind. Train early, pace yourselves, and stay focused on the road ahead to cross the line without injury.


[1] UK Anti‑Corruption Strategy 2025

[2] UK Fraud Strategy 2026-2029

[3] Final Notice 2025: Institute of Certified Bookkeepers

[4] Our strategy 2025 to 2030

[5] FCA Enforcement data 2024/25 | FCA

[6] MLRs_Consultation_Response.pdf

[7] FCA Enforcement data 2024/25 | FCA

[8] REP-CRIM is the financial crime data return which allows the FCA to be more data-led and broaden its understanding of firms’ risks. This information is used to underpin its risk-based supervisory approach.

[9] The FCA Sanctions Screening Tool (SST) is an analytics-based tool developed to objectively test how effective firms are at identifying sanctioned individuals and entities using test data.  

[10] Supervision_24-25_Annual_Report

[11] Do the right thing: Part II | FCA

[12] Voluntary Requirements (VREQ), Voluntary Variation of Permission (VVOP), Voluntary Directions under MLRs (VDIR), Own Initiative Requirements (OIREQ), Own Initiative Variation of Permission (OIVOP), Own Initiative Direction under MLRs (OIDIR), Own Initiative Variation of a SMF Holders Approval (OIVAP), Section 165 and Section 166 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA) – powers to request information and Skilled Person Reports, attestations, undertakings, redress, and, capital & liquidity measures.

[13] Skilled person reviews | FCA

[14] Five-year average

[15] Skilled person reviews | FCA

[16] Final Notice 2024: Starling Bank Limited

[17] Final Notice 2025: Monzo Bank Limited

[18] Final notice 2024: CB Payments Limited

About the Author:

Priya Giuliani is a specialist in financial crime investigations & compliance with nearly 30 years’ experience, including a decade as a Partner. She specialises in helping clients on a proactive basis to assess and manage the risk of financial crime including assessing governance, oversight, conduct, and training Senior Managers and Boards. Her investigative experience provides insight in to how various financial crime types (e.g. money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing, sanctions and tax evasion, bribery, corruption and fraud) can occur, including through the use of professional enablers, and the controls required to manage these risks effectively. Priya has been appointed on many Skilled Person engagements. Widely regarded as a well-qualified and highly experienced expert in financial crime risk management and investigations. She understands risk well and works with clients to assess and develop proportionate and effective control frameworks.


Priya Giuliani

Partner

priyagiuliani@hka.com

Expert Profile



This article presents views, thoughts or opinions that are provided for general information purposes only. It does not represent the views of, or constitute advice of any form (legal, professional or otherwise) from, HKA or any of its affiliates. While HKA takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of its contents at the time of publication, the article does not deal with all aspects of the referenced subject matter and may not be relied upon as a substitute for professional judgement or independent analysis. Accordingly, neither HKA nor the author accepts liability for any use of, or reliance on, the information presented in the article. This article is protected by copyright © 2026 HKA Global, LLC/© 2026 HKA Global Ltd. All rights reserved.

​​​HKA appoints Francesco Capotorto as Director in Construction, Claims and Expert Services practice

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​​​HKA appoints Francesco Capotorto as Director in Construction, Claims and Expert Services practice

HKA is pleased to announce the appointment of Francesco Capotorto as Director within its Construction, Claims, and Expert (CCE) Services business in London.

Francesco has supported experts and counsels on numerous dispute resolution engagements, predominantly in international arbitrations, as well as contractual adjudications, litigations, and negotiations, providing rigorous forensic delay analysis, evidence review, and strategic advisory inputs.

He brings more than two decades of experience in project management and dispute resolution across major EPC, energy, offshore, process industry, and infrastructure projects, working with leading organisations including Ankura, CBRE, Valaris, Seadrill, BP, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Europe, and General Electric (GE).

He has significant experience across a wide range of industry sectors, including FPSO conversion and drilling rig upgrade disputes and a DAB delay analysis for a nuclear power programme in Europe. He has delivered delay and disruption analysis for a carbon capture and storage project in the Nordics, provided litigation support for delay analysis on a German food and pharmaceutical process plant, and undertaken delay analysis for gas terminal construction in the Middle East. His wider experience spans delay analysis for various types of power plant projects globally, along with engineering and construction delays on wind farm developments in the UK.

Francesco’s appointment enhances HKA’s offering in four key areas: enhanced delay and disruption analysis capability, expert witness support across high value mandates, broader technical and commercial insight for energy and EPC disputes, and strengthened European and Mediterranean market connectivity.

“Francesco brings a rare combination of technical depth, international dispute experience and commercial insight. His appointment strengthens our CCE’s capability and enhances our ability to support clients facing complex delay and claims challenges on major capital projects across Europe, the UK, and global markets.”

Paul Cacchioli, Partner

A Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Arbitrators (FCIArb) and a panel member of the CIArb Business Arbitration Scheme, Francesco holds an MSc in Construction Law and Dispute Resolution from King’s College London – Dickson Poon School of Law with merit, an MBA, and an MEng, and is APAEWE certified for expert witness evidence. He is fluent in English and Italian and has knowledge of French and Spanish. A dual British Italian national and native Italian speaker, Francesco brings valuable cultural and regional insight to HKA’s work across Europe and the Mediterranean. 

“HKA’s reputation in construction disputes and expert services is exceptional. I look forward to partnering with colleagues and clients to deliver clear, robust analysis and to help resolve complex delay and claims matters on major projects worldwide.”

Francesco Capotorto, Director

Media contact 

NameJill Dawson
TitleMarketing and Communications Senior Manager
Emailjilldawson@hka.com

Middle East Perspective: LNG market and long-term LNG SPAs

Article

Middle East Perspective: LNG market and long-term LNG SPAs

The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is reverberating across global gas and LNG markets. Strikes on key regional LNG assets, combined with disruption to shipping routes, have created a supply shock, immediate price escalations and likely far-reaching contractual obligations.

Below is an overview of the emerging impacts, their likely consequences for LNG SPAs, and the areas where market participants would be advised to start preparing mitigation strategies.

Impacts on the LNG Market

Strikes in the Middle East and the shutdown of LNG production in Qatar

Strikes on LNG facilities across Qatar (Ras Laffan and Mesaieed), the United Arab Emirates (Das Island and Ruwais), and Oman (Qalhat) have led to unprecedented disruption in supply with Qatar alone accounting for around 20% of global LNG exports. The announcement from QatarEnergy on 02 March of a complete shutdown of its LNG production and the suspension of all tanker loadings triggered an unprecedented Force Majeure declaration with the historic drop in the global supply, an unprecedented move in 30 years.

Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on the market

Iran’s announcement of the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded more than 150 vessels, including LNG carriers. China, the world’s largest LNG importer, which sources nearly one‑third of its LNG from the region is particularly exposed to disruption of Middle East supplies.

This disruption entails:

  • the removal of 1.6 to 1.8 Mt of LNG per week from the global market (estimated at ~411 Mt in 2024),
  • a reduced availability of LNG carriers;
  • an increase in freight and marine insurance costs;
  • an elevated risk of delays for deliveries to Asia and Europe, driven by diminished trade fluidity and congestion along alternative routes.

U.S. exporters, notably Venture Global and Cheniere Energy, are accelerating production in Texas and Louisiana and accelerate the commissioning of additional capacity, while buyers (particularly in Europe and Asia) are attempting to secure supply. Traders holding U.S. LNG cargoes are also reallocating volumes toward premium markets, where price signals have strengthened relative to the U.S;

  • TTF[1] (Europe’s benchmark for LNG pricing): ~$17/MMBtu (up 50% w/w);
  • JKM in Northeast Asia (Asia accounts for 80% of Qatar’s LNG exports): ~$14.6/MMBtu (up 40% w/w); and
  • Henry Hub (the U.S. benchmark price): relatively stable at ~$3/MMBtu (supported by ample domestic LNG supply).

An energy crisis that remains contained (at this stage)

Although the global LNG market is tightening, but is not, at this stage, experiencing a crisis comparable to that of 2021–2022. Gas prices remain well below the peaks at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict (around 117.5 $/MMBtu in Europe).

Several structural factors have helped absorb the shock and mitigate pressure on the market and on gas prices:

  • additional global supply compared with 2021–2022 (for example, the United States has added new LNG export capacity, becoming the world’s largest exporter in 2023);
  • most importing countries also hold inventories sufficient to cover 2 to 3 weeks of demand. European storage levels are not particularly low, unlike in 2021;
  • demand is seasonally low, with Europe exiting the winter period and Asia not yet entering the summer peak (“shoulder season”).

What scenarios for the weeks ahead?

This situation constitutes a significant shock for the gas market; however, its impact could remain contained if Qatar is able to resume production in a timely manner and if transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalise.

The key factors that merit close attention are:

  • the duration of the Qatari shutdown;
  • the return of operator confidence in safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

Some market commentators consider that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, or if infrastructure is durably damaged, the global gas market could face a shock exceeding that of 2022, notably because:

  • there is not enough uncommitted LNG to make up for a prolonged loss of the Qatari LNG volumes;
  • the global gas/LNG market is inelastic in the short term: a sharp increase in demand, and therefore in prices, cannot significantly expand supply, given current structural constraints; and in particular
  • U.S. LNG producers cannot increase their production to compensate for such prolonged loss, whereas in 2022 U.S. LNG was able to absorb part of the supply imbalance resulting from the halt of Russian gas flows to Europe (albeit on the back of high gas prices).

Potential impacts on LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs)

QatarEnergy’s Force Majeure clause: notification, potential disputes, and scope of applicability

Through the shutdown of LNG production and the suspension of loadings, QatarEnergy is invoking Force Majeure suspending contractual delivery obligations. Buyers may seek to scrutinise:

  • the specific contractual definition of Force Majeure (e.g., “political events,” “war,” “inability to operate facilities”);
  • the duration of the Force Majeure period, with several analysts considering that QatarEnergy may be able to resume operations in approximately three weeks; and
  • the resumption date will be critical in determining the impact on the contract (some contracts may feature long-term Force Majeure that could allow contracts to be terminated after a prolonged period of Force Majeure).

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz: delays, penalty exposure, and clauses that could be invoked

Prolonged transit closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger several contractual implications:

  • Delivery delays that could give rise to liquidated damages, trigger laycan provisions[2], and result in demurrage charges;[3]
  • Potential renegotiation of cost pass‑through provisions;
  • Invocation of maritime impediment clauses, which are included in some contracts alongside Force Majeure provisions.

Increase in gas prices and potential implications for the LNG SPAs

Sustained increases in gas spot prices (ranging from up 40% to 50% depending on the region) may affect SPAs differently:

  • Contracts indexed to the spot market, alone or in combination with other benchmarks or indices, will increase buyers’ cost obligations;
  • Fixed‑price contracts, bring heightened risk of supplier default if the spot price exceeds the contractual price plus the replacement cost;
  • Potential invocation of hardship clauses[4], permitting a party to demand a renegotiation of the contractual terms, primarily the price, and to seek adjustments to specific obligations to re‑establish the contract’s economic equilibrium, thereby avoiding termination of the agreement.

For contracts that are still indexed on oil indices, the ongoing surge in oil prices may also have significant impact on the economic balance of the contract.

Risk of supplier non-performance (supply failure)

Supply failures may arise from:

  • QatarEnergy markets its long‑term volumes primarily through two entities: QatarEnergy Long Term Marketing (QELM) and its trading subsidiary QET;[5]
  • The LNG supplier ADNOC in Abu Dhabi is also experiencing disruptions from its Das Island LNG facility. The current situation may also impact the development and delivery of the new LNG export project of ADNOC, Ruwais LNG.

Buyers purchasing on an FOB (“Free on Board”)[6] basis from these suppliers are likely to be more adversely impacted than buyers operating under DES (“Delivered Ex‑Ship”)[7] contractual arrangements.

This temporary (or prolonged) inability to deliver the contractual volumes may, depending on the terms of the contracts, trigger:

  • requests for compensation for delivery shortfalls (“shortfall compensation”);
  • obligations to provide replacement[8] cargoes;
  • the risk of contentious proceedings should the buyer challenge the applicability of Force Majeure.

This risk of delivery default could also extend to portfolio players holding upstream volumes sourced from Qatar:

  • Portfolio players may not necessarily be able to declare Force Majeure in turn to their own customers;
  • In the absence of Force Majeure, portfolio players remain bound by their downstream delivery obligations, while facing a reduced upstream portfolio;
  • This may therefore result in delivery failures and contractual disputes regarding the level of compensation applicable to such delivery shortfalls (liquidated damages or the full cost of replacing the missing cargo).

Conclusion

The Middle East crisis represents a significant, though currently contained, disruption to global LNG markets. Its evolution in the coming weeks will determine whether the situation normalises or deepens into structural imbalance.

Beyond the immediate market effects, the crisis materially heightens the risk of contractual disputes under LNG SPAs. Key areas of exposure include the scope and duration of Force Majeure, obligations relating to delivery shortfalls and replacement cargoes, compensation and liquidated damages mechanisms, as well as potential hardship or price‑review claims triggered by sustained price dislocation.

In this context, parties should proactively assess their contractual positions, secure evidence relevant to potential claims or defences, and prepare for possible arbitration or litigation arising from contested interpretations of key contractual provisions.

Authors


Patrick Hebreard

Partner

patrickhebreard@hka.com

Expert Profile

Hermano Oliveira

Director

hermanooliveira@hka.com

Expert Profile


[1] The values for TTF, JKM and HH reflect Day‑Ahead market assessments.

[2] The “laycan” clause defines the time window (between two specified dates) within which a vessel must arrive at the loading port for the contract to remain valid. The laycan is the combination of the “Laydays” (the earliest date on which the vessel is permitted to present itself for loading) and the “Cancelling date” (the latest permissible date). If the vessel arrives after this date, the charterer may cancel the contract.

[3] Demurrage charges owed by the charterer to the vessel owner when the vessel remains in port longer than anticipated for loading and/or unloading operations (referred to as “laytime”).

[4] A hardship clause is a contractual provision intended to protect the economic equilibrium of the contract when unforeseen and exceptional events render the performance of the contract excessively burdensome or imbalanced for one of the parties. Courts and arbitral tribunals clearly distinguish hardship from a mere market risk: an event must be exceptional and not allocated under the risk‑sharing arrangements of the LNG SPA to qualify as hardship.

[5] QELM markets the volumes originating from the production facilities at Ras Laffan and from the North Field expansion, whereas QET markets long‑term supply on a portfolio basis and through third‑party arrangements.

[6] Such as Petronet (sourcing from QatarEnergy) and Securing Energy for Europe (sourcing from ADNOC).

[7] For DES contracts, suppliers are required to honour their cargo commitments, either by relying on their portfolios or by securing replacement cargoes on the spot market.

[8]Replacement cargo obligations”: In most traditional LNG long‑term SPAs, if the seller is unable to deliver the original cargo within the agreed delivery window, it is required to use reasonable efforts to reschedule the cargo. Should such rescheduling efforts fail, the buyer may cancel the delivery, and the seller must pay damages, the amount of which depends on the buyer’s ability to obtain a replacement cargo. Specifically, if the buyer succeeds in procuring a substitute cargo, the damages payable by the seller correspond to the actual costs incurred by the buyer in securing such replacement cargo.


This article presents views, thoughts or opinions that are provided for general information purposes only. It does not represent the views of, or constitute advice of any form (legal, professional or otherwise) from, HKA or any of its affiliates. While HKA takes reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of its contents at the time of publication, the article does not deal with all aspects of the referenced subject matter and may not be relied upon as a substitute for professional judgement or independent analysis. Accordingly, neither HKA nor the author accepts liability for any use of, or reliance on, the information presented in the article. This article is protected by copyright © 2026 HKA Global, LLC/© 2026 HKA Global Ltd. All rights reserved.

HKA appoints Matt Ösund-Ireland as Environmental Partner in London

News

HKA appoints Matt Ösund-Ireland as Environmental Partner in London

HKA has announced the appointment of London-based Dr Matt Ösund-Ireland as a Partner in its expanding Environment and Climate Change practice within the firm’s Forensic Technical Services (FTS) team.

Matt brings over 30 years of experience advising governments, corporates, and financial institutions on environmental, climate, and sustainability matters across more than 25 countries. He has supported complex, nationally significant and highly-regulated projects worldwide, with expertise spanning strategy, environmental compliance, impact assessment, due diligence, and climate risk. His technical specialisms include air quality, emissions and climate change, and his expert witness experience includes planning inquiries and giving evidence before a UK House of Commons Select Committee.

Prior to joining HKA, Matt held senior roles at Susteer, Wood, AECOM, and Mott MacDonald, among others. He has worked across a broad range of sectors including transport, energy, manufacturing, urban regeneration, large industry, and waste, supporting clients through disputes, regulatory scrutiny, and high-profile infrastructure developments.

A Chartered Environmental Scientist, Matt has led major international programmes and projects covering carbon foot printing, greenhouse gas inventories, climate resilience and adaptation planning, emissions reduction strategies, and climate related financial disclosure. He has also developed and delivered training programmes for industry, regulators, and government bodies, and is a contributing author to several UK technical and policy guidance documents.

“I am thrilled to be joining HKA at a time when climate risk and environmental compliance are shaping decisions in every sector. I have seen how powerful it is when diverse expertise comes together, and I am excited to bring that experience into HKA’s talented global team. The opportunity to collaborate, share ideas and help grow our international environmental capability is something I am genuinely looking forward to, especially as we support clients through increasingly complex challenges.”

Dr Matt Ösund-Ireland, Partner

Matt will work closely with HKA’s international teams to support clients across disputes, investigations and advisory engagements involving climate risk, carbon, environmental compliance, and sustainability related issues.

“Matt’s appointment reflects the growing importance of climate, carbon and environmental issues in our disputes and advisory work globally. He brings exceptional technical depth, a strong track record as an expert witness and a pragmatic, collaborative approach that aligns closely with HKA’s values. Matt’s experience will significantly strengthen our Forensic Technical Services capability and further support our clients on some of their most complex and high-profile challenges.”

Dr Kourosh Kayvani, Partner, and Head of Forensic Technical Services

 

Media contact 

NameJill Dawson
TitleSenior Marketing and Communications Manager
Emailjilldawson@hka.com

HKA Enhances Global Competition & Group Litigation Growth with Appointment of Mitesh Modha

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HKA Enhances Global Competition & Group Litigation Growth with Appointment of Mitesh Modha

HKA is pleased to announce the appointment of Mitesh Modha as Business Development Principal for the International region, based in our London office.

This appointment reflects HKA’s continued investment in strengthening our global competition and economic disputes offering, deepening client relationships, and accelerating growth across competition, group litigation and commercial dispute mandates.

Mitesh brings more than 10 years of experience in business development, origination, stakeholder engagement, and cross-border commercial strategy. His career spans the UK, Europe, and the Middle East, with a strong track record of creating new market opportunities, shaping strategic partnerships, and supporting clients involved in high-profile and complex commercial claims, corporate governance matters, and class/group actions.

“HKA’s depth in expert evidence, economic analysis and disputes advisory work puts us in an exceptional position to support lawyers and their clients seeking expert economic/forensic input into their group and class actions, in addition to assisting clients facing heightened regulatory scrutiny and complex cross border challenges. I’ll be supporting our expansion across competition, group litigation, and commercial disputes, and building strategic relationships across international markets.”

Mitesh Modha

With experience at Woodsford, Kain Knight, and SettleFirst Consulting, Mitesh has operated at the intersection of legal strategy, corporate governance, financial risk, and commercial recovery. This breadth of experience aligns closely with HKA’s multidisciplinary expertise and services across competition, group litigation, and commercial dispute mandates.

“Mitesh’s appointment comes at a time when economic competition issues are increasingly shaping global disputes. He brings valuable international experience and commercial insight. His appointment strengthens our business development capability and supports our strategy to deepen client engagement across key international markets.”

Chris Williams, Partner and Head of Economics, International, HKA

 

Media contact 

NameJill Dawson
TitleSenior Marketing and Communications Manager
Emailjilldawson@hka.com

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